{"id":15104,"date":"2011-07-08T16:19:56","date_gmt":"2011-07-08T23:19:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seamheads.com\/?p=15104"},"modified":"2011-07-11T10:46:37","modified_gmt":"2011-07-11T17:46:37","slug":"the-bbwaa-report-card-for-the-21st-century-%e2%80%93-part-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2011\/07\/08\/the-bbwaa-report-card-for-the-21st-century-%e2%80%93-part-3\/","title":{"rendered":"The BBWAA Report Card for the 21st Century \u00e2\u20ac\u201c Part 3"},"content":{"rendered":"

In Part 1 of this series, I indicated that the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) has been quite successful since 2001 in their selection of major league players for induction into the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 Of the eighteen inductees from 2001 through 2011, sixteen do indeed have Hall of Fame numbers according to the strict benchmarks of the CAWS Career Gauge.<\/p>\n

In Part 2, we looked at the ten players inducted by the writers from 2001 through 2006.\u00c2\u00a0 All ten of those players did have Hall of Fame numbers according to the CAWS Career Gauge.<\/p>\n

In Part 3, we will take a look at the eight players elected to the Hall by the writers from 2007 through 2011.<\/p>\n

2007 to 2011 \u00e2\u20ac\u201c Eight Players Inducted \u00e2\u20ac\u201c 6 Hits and 2 Misses<\/strong><\/p>\n

2007<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2007, the BBWAA had a relatively easy task.\u00c2\u00a0 They elected both Cal Ripken Jr<\/strong>. and Tony Gwynn<\/strong> on the first time on the ballot for each of them.\u00c2\u00a0 And the vote was overwhelming: 99% for Ripken and 98% for Gwynn.\u00c2\u00a0 Of course, both players had very obvious HOF numbers.<\/p>\n

Here are the numbers for these players.\u00c2\u00a0 The first number is career win shares, the second is core value (the sum of the win shares in the ten best seasons) and the third is the CAWS career score.\u00c2\u00a0 [CAWS = CV + .25(CWS \u00e2\u20ac\u201c CV)]<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cal Ripken Jr.
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		427<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n276<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n314<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tony Gwynn
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		398<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n269<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n294<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Cal Ripken Jr <\/strong>was one of the greatest shortstops of the 20th<\/sup> century.\u00c2\u00a0 He ranks as the #4 shortstop behind only Honus Wagner, Alex Rodriguez and Arky Vaughan.\u00c2\u00a0 And he had the #40 best career numbers among all position players since 1901.\u00c2\u00a0 He really was a no-brainer for the BBWAA.<\/p>\n

Tony Gwynn <\/strong>was an equally easy choice for induction into the Hall.\u00c2\u00a0 In his twenty seasons with San Diego, he batted .338 and led the National League in batting average eight times.\u00c2\u00a0 He is the #11 right fielder of the century \u00e2\u20ac\u201c right behind Roberto Clemente.\u00c2\u00a0 And his career numbers rank him as #64 among all position players since 1901.<\/p>\n

2008<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2008, Rich (Goose) Gossage<\/strong> was elected to the Hall by the writers in his ninth year on the ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 Although he was not an obvious choice, the CAWS Career Gauge suggests that Goose definitely had HOF numbers.<\/p>\n

Consider the following.\u00c2\u00a0 Since 1901, only eight pitchers have managed a CAWS score of 180 with fewer than 2400 innings pitched.\u00c2\u00a0 Here they are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nIP<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pedro Martinez
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		2297<\/span><\/td>\n224<\/span><\/td>\n200<\/span><\/td>\n206<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mariano Rivera
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		1150<\/span><\/td>\n241<\/span><\/td>\n175<\/span><\/td>\n192<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Addie Joss<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		2327<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n191<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n191<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n191<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sandy Koufax<\/strong>
\n<\/em><\/span><\/td>\n		2324<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n194<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n190<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n191<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hoyt Wilhelm<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		2254<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n256<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n168<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n190<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Goose Gossage<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		1809<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n223<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n173<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n186<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Roy Halladay
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		2297<\/span><\/td>\n194<\/span><\/td>\n183<\/span><\/td>\n186<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dizzy Dean<\/strong>
\n<\/span><\/td>\n		1967<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n181<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n180<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n180<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The CAWS Gauge has defined this achievement as Hall-worthy.\u00c2\u00a0 Note that all five pitchers who have been eligible are now in Cooperstown.<\/p>\n

2009<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2009, the writers inducted two players into the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 One choice represented a clear hit while the other was a very bad error.<\/p>\n

Rickey Henderson <\/strong>was a no-brainer for the writers.\u00c2\u00a0 He was elected in his first year on the ballot with 95% of the vote.\u00c2\u00a0 Here is his CAWS line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rickey Henderson
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		535<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n308<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n365<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Only seventeen position players ever had 500 win shares and Rickey is one of them.\u00c2\u00a0 He had the #20 best career numbers of any position player of the 20th<\/sup> century.\u00c2\u00a0 He played for twenty-five seasons and was a true superstar in every meaning of the term.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, in 2009 the writers also elected Jim Rice<\/strong> to the Hall.\u00c2\u00a0 His selection represented the first mistake made by the BBWAA since 2001 and, by coincidence, represents a sharp contrast to Rickey Henderson, his fellow inductee.\u00c2\u00a0 Rice just squeaked in with 76% of the vote on his 15th<\/sup> (and last) time on the ballot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jim Rice
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		282<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n233<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n245<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Note that Rice has a CAWS score of 245.\u00c2\u00a0 A score of 280 is required of a left fielder to have obvious HOF numbers (Rickey had a 365 score).\u00c2\u00a0 And a score of 260 is considered \u00e2\u20ac\u0153marginal HOF numbers.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 Of course, Rice is nowhere near even the 260 mark.<\/p>\n

But, to get a better idea of just how bad a selection this was, consider the following.\u00c2\u00a0 A player named Heinie Manush who played in the 1920s and 30s is in the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 And, among students of Cooperstown, Manush is generally considered to be one of the worst choices ever \u00e2\u20ac\u201c someone who definitely does not belong.\u00c2\u00a0 Look at these numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Heinie Manush
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		285<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n236<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n248<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Graig Nettles
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		321<\/span><\/td>\n224<\/span><\/td>\n248<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Don Mattingly<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		263<\/span><\/td>\n241<\/span><\/td>\n247<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ken Boyer
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		279<\/span><\/td>\n235<\/span><\/td>\n246<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vern Stephens<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		265<\/span><\/td>\n239<\/span><\/td>\n246<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bob Johnson
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		287<\/span><\/td>\n231<\/span><\/td>\n245<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dale Murphy<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		294<\/span><\/td>\n228<\/span><\/td>\n245<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jim Rice
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		282<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n233<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n245<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As you can see, Manush has better career numbers than any of these other seven players including Jim Rice.\u00c2\u00a0 The essential point is, of course, that none of these players has anything close to Hall of Fame numbers.<\/p>\n

Jim Rice\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s election in 2009 was one of the poorest choices made by the BBWAA in a very long time.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

2010<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2010, the writers stumbled again and elected Andre Dawson<\/strong> to the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 Dawson got 79% of the vote in his ninth year on the ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 Here are his numbers together with a few other players for comparison purposes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dwight Evans<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		347<\/span><\/td>\n234<\/span><\/td>\n262<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fred McGriff
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		326<\/span><\/td>\n240<\/span><\/td>\n262<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Andre Dawson
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		340<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n234<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n261<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brian Giles
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		287<\/span><\/td>\n252<\/span><\/td>\n261<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Norm Cash<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		315<\/span><\/td>\n241<\/span><\/td>\n260<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sal Bando
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		283<\/span><\/td>\n251<\/span><\/td>\n259<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As you can see, Dawson did not really come close to the 280 CAWS score for obvious HOF numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 In fact, he and the other players here only barely made the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153marginal HOF numbers\u00e2\u20ac\u009d benchmark of 260.\u00c2\u00a0 Even so, all six of them had much better career numbers than Jim Rice.<\/p>\n

2011<\/strong><\/p>\n

Having missed the mark with both Jim Rice and Andre Dawson in 2009 and 2010, the BBWAA got back on target when they selected Roberto Alomar<\/strong> and Bert Blyleven<\/strong> for the Hall of Fame in 2011.\u00c2\u00a0 Both have solid HOF numbers.<\/p>\n

Roberto Alomar <\/strong>was elected in his second year on the ballot with 90% of the vote.\u00c2\u00a0 And he certainly deserves the honor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Roberto Alomar
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		375<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n278<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n302<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Alomar is the #7 ranked second baseman of the century \u00e2\u20ac\u201c just ahead of Hall of Famers Ryne Sandberg and Rod Carew.\u00c2\u00a0 And he had the #53 best career numbers of any position player since 1901.\u00c2\u00a0 He is one of only fifty-six position players who managed to achieve a CAWS score of 300.\u00c2\u00a0 He was a truly outstanding player<\/p>\n

Bert Blyleven <\/strong>was inducted in his fourteenth year on the ballot by a vote of 80%.\u00c2\u00a0 What is odd about this long wait is that Bert is not a \u00e2\u20ac\u0153marginal Hall of Famer.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 He was a great pitcher with obvious HOF numbers who was seriously under-appreciated for years.<\/p>\n

According to the CAWS Gauge, Blyleven has two solid credentials<\/strong> for induction into the Hall.\u00c2\u00a0 First, he is one of only twenty-three (23) pitchers in modern times (since 1920) who have accumulated 300 career win shares in the major leagues.\u00c2\u00a0 And the CAWS Gauge suggests that any pitcher who has 300 win shares deserves to be in Cooperstown.\u00c2\u00a0 And, now that Bert has been elected, every pitcher with this distinction who has been eligible has been inducted. <\/strong><\/p>\n

The second credential that establishes Blyleven\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s place in the Hall is that his was the #16 best career by a starting pitcher in modern times. <\/strong> Here are his numbers together with a few others for comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fergie Jenkins (1965-1983)
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		323<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n233<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n256<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Randy Johnson (1988-2009)
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		326<\/span><\/td>\n230<\/span><\/td>\n254<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bob Feller (1936-1956)<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		292<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n239<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n252<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bert Blyleven (1970-1992)
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		339<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n218<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n248<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Wynn (1939-1963)<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		309<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n217<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n240<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nolan Ryan (1966-1993)
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		334<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n191<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n227<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Don Sutton (1966-1988)<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n		319<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n187<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n220<\/span><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

All of these pitchers are now in Cooperstown except for Randy Johnson who is not yet eligible.\u00c2\u00a0 Bert Blyleven deserves his spot in the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n

So, of the eight players elected to the Hall of Fame by the writers from 2007 to 2011, six have obvious HOF numbers according to the strict benchmarks of the CAWS Career Gauge \u00e2\u20ac\u201c while two do not.<\/p>\n

As I mentioned earlier, from 2001 to 2011, sixteen of the eighteen players inducted into the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA have valid HOF numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 I feel that is a good job and deserves a grade of at least a\u00c2\u00a0 B+.<\/p>\n

Thanks for your time.<\/p>\n

Mike Hoban
\nProfessor Emeritus \u00e2\u20ac\u201c City U of NY
\nAuthor of A GOOD CAWS: A Hall of Fame Handbook<\/strong> (2011)
\nhttp:\/\/booklocker.com\/books\/2968.html<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In Part 1 of this series, I indicated that the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) has been quite successful since 2001 in their selection of major league players for induction into the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 Of the eighteen inductees from 2001 through 2011, sixteen do indeed have Hall of Fame numbers according to the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[77,19,4235],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-hall-of-fame","category-prof-hobans-hall-of-fame-blog","category-top-stories"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t