Before moving on to Part III, there\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a clarification I need to make regarding Part II.<\/p>\n
In addition to factoring in the difference in league parks between any two leagues when doing MLE\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s, you must also factor in the difference between league SCORING environments. In the previous Part II, I \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcplugged\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 a 7% difference into the formula and called it the park difference. In reality, the 7% difference is actually the \u00e2\u20ac\u02dccontext\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 difference – a combination of park differences AND league scoring differences. Since we can calculate the league scoring difference, we really should use it, and plug ONLY the park difference.<\/p>\n
In terms of the final results, it won\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t change anything, but in terms of understanding how to \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcproperly\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 do MLE\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s, not just for Japanese League players but for AAA, or Negro Leagues, etc., and for understanding the interaction of parks, leagues, etc. it\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s important to understand how this works.<\/p>\n
Japanese league scoring historically is less than MLB. Japanese League managers\u00c2\u00a0traditionally have used more one run, \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcsmall ball\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 strategies, and the league scoring environments definitely reflect this. For the period 1962 \u00e2\u20ac\u201c 2007, NPB scoring per game was 94% of MLB scoring per game.<\/p>\n
I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll walk thru complete examples for a hypothetical batter and pitcher again, this time doing it completely the \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcright\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 way: 1. Batter Runs Created in NPB = 10.0 (per game)<\/p>\n 2. Competition Level increase moving to MLB of 10%. New Runs Created = 9.0<\/p>\n 3. Run scoring environment increase moving to MLB of 6% (NPB 94% of MLB). New Runs Created = 9.5<\/p>\n 4. Leagues Park Difference, moving to more pitcher-friendly MLB parks, estimated 13% (NOTE: This is a \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcplug\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 estimate backed in to by the 14% negative difference in performance in batters moving to MLB vs. pitchers moving to MLB. Assuming batters and pitchers are impacted equally, that would be a -7% for batters and +7 % for pitchers. If batters are -7%, but are getting a +6% scoring environment increase in Step #3 above, then the \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcplug\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 is -7% minus +6% = 13%).<\/p>\n New MLB MLE Runs Created = 8.3 vs. Original\u00c2\u00a0NPB Runs Created of 10.0<\/p>\n Japanese Pitcher A:<\/strong><\/p>\n 1. Pitcher ERA in NPB = 4.00<\/p>\n 2. Competition Level increaseing moving to MLB of 10%. New ERA = 4.40<\/p>\n 3. Runs scoring environment increase moving to MLB of 6%. New ERA = 4.66<\/p>\n 4. Leagues Park Difference, moving to more pitcher-friendly MLB parks, 13%.<\/p>\n New MLB MLE\u00c2\u00a0ERA = 4.06 vs. Original NPB ERA of 4.00.<\/p>\n A few concluding thoughts for Part II:<\/p>\n 1. This method works for analyzing or creating MLE\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s between ANY two leagues, not just NPB to MLB.<\/p>\n 2. As you can hopefully clearly see now, there are specific reasons that batters moving from NPB to MLB \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcsuffer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 much more than pitchers moving from NPB to MLB, beyond some nebulous \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcposition players don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t adjust as well\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 theories.<\/p>\n 3. Steps #3 and #4, that I originally compressed into one step, will almost always have some overlap. Breaking it out into two steps is really an artificial break, that I decided to add for clarity. We can only really measure the Step #3 factor, and assume the Step #4 amount, but League Run Scoring is obviously impacted by the types of parks in that league. For example, if the International League scores at 8% more runs per game per team than MLB, and we \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcplug\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 in a Step #4 percentage of IL parks being 5% more batter-friendly, in order to get to the correct observed empircal results for IL batters moving to MLB, then I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122d be almost certain that IL parks are really even MORE than 5% more batter-friendly vs. MLB parks, thereby partially \u00e2\u20ac\u02dccausing\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 the the IL 8% league scoring difference. Regardless, the TOTAL adjustment factor for steps 3\/4 would be 13%, but maybe the \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcreal\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 cause of the context difference is 7% due to parks and 6% other factors instead of 5% and 8%.<\/p>\n In Part III, we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll finally get down to actually doing MLE\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s and projections for the best Japanese players possibly moving to MLB in 2008.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Before moving on to Part III, there\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a clarification I need to make regarding Part II. In addition to factoring in the difference in league parks between any two leagues when doing MLE\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s, you must also factor in the difference between league SCORING environments. In the previous Part II, I \u00e2\u20ac\u02dcplugged\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 a 7% difference into […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-statistical-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=159"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/159\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n
\nJapanese Batter A:<\/strong><\/p>\n