{"id":18976,"date":"2011-12-16T16:07:38","date_gmt":"2011-12-17T00:07:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seamheads.com\/?p=18976"},"modified":"2011-12-16T16:07:38","modified_gmt":"2011-12-17T00:07:38","slug":"fun-with-retrosheet-do-only-slow-runners-ground-into-a-lot-of-dps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2011\/12\/16\/fun-with-retrosheet-do-only-slow-runners-ground-into-a-lot-of-dps\/","title":{"rendered":"Fun With Retrosheet: Do Only Slow Runners Ground into a Lot of DPs?"},"content":{"rendered":"

There was a discussion recently on SABR-L about whether we can reliably determine that a player was slow from his offensive statistics. Several markers were proposed: low stolen base totals, a poor SB success rate, and few triples were some of those that were mentioned. So was a high number of grounded into double-plays (GIDP). During the discussion that followed, one of the contributors mentioned that Jackie Jensen<\/a> had set the major league record (since broken) when he grounded into 32 DPs in 1954<\/a>, but also hit seven triples and had a league-leading<\/a> 22 stolen bases with an above average (75.9) success rate. Someone else then suggested that perhaps Jensen simply had an extraordinarily high number of GIDP opportunities that year, what with Ted Williams<\/a> (an OBP machine) hitting in front of him much of the year<\/a>. Mike Lynch (of Seamheads<\/a> fame) then contacted me and suggested that it might be nice if we had some, you know, actual data on the subject.<\/p>\n

So here’s what I did: for each player’s season from 1952 to 2011, I computed his total plate-appearances (PA), the number of those where a GIDP was possible (GPA), the number of ground-outs in those situations (GO), and the number of times he grounded into a double-play (GIDP). I also computed the percentage of plate-appearances in situations where a GIDP was possible, the percentage of those plate-appearances that resulted in a ground-out, and the percentage of those ground-outs that resulted in a GIDP.<\/p>\n

So let’s start with Jackie Jensen’s 1954 season:<\/p>\n

Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nJackie Jensen      1954 BOS A 674 179  .266  53  .296  32  .604\r\nLeague Rank                     7   3     4   1     5   1     2<\/pre>\n
In the percentage categories, a minimum of 500 plate appearances was used.<\/p>\n
So it seems that the record was a combination of Jensen being among the league leaders in all three risk factors:<\/p>\n
1) He was fourth in the league in the percentage of plate appearances with a man on first and less than two outs. The players ahead of him:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nTed Williams       1954 BOS A 526 145  .276  27  .186  11  .407\r\nMinnie Minoso<\/a>      1954 CHI A 676 183  .271  45  .246  20  .444\r\nMickey Vernon<\/a>      1954 WAS A 674 180  .267  37  .206   9  .243<\/pre>\n
2) He was fifth in the league in the percentage of ground-outs in these situations. Again, those ahead of him:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nAl Kaline<\/a>          1954 DET A 535 137  .256  50  .365  21  .420\r\nDave Philley<\/a>       1954 CLE A 522 125  .239  40  .320  16  .400\r\nSpook Jacobs<\/a>       1954 PHI A 565  72  .127  23  .319   7  .304\r\nJim Finigan<\/a>        1954 PHI A 547 108  .197  34  .315  17  .500<\/pre>\n
And perhaps most importantly:<\/p>\n
He trailed only one other player in the league in the percentage of those ground-outs that resulted in double-plays:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nHarvey Kuenn<\/a>       1954 DET A 696 111  .159  30  .270  19  .633<\/pre>\n
So I’m not sure how to reconcile his obvious speed with his lack of success in beating out potential double-play grounders. I mean, 36-year-old first-baseman Mickey Vernon, with one stolen base in five attempts that season (although he did have fourteen triples), was doubled-up only 9 out of 37 times, a huge improvement over Jensen’s rate.<\/p>\n
Here are some historic extremes in this data. Let’s start with the players from 1952 to 2011 with the highest percentage of ground-outs in these situations that resulted in double-plays:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nMark McGwire<\/a>       1996 OAK A 548 106  .193  15  .142  14  .933\r\nMike Piazza<\/a>        2004 NY  N 528  97  .184  16  .165  14  .875\r\nRocky Colavito<\/a>     1966 CLE A 614  97  .158  28  .289  24  .857\r\nDale Murphy<\/a>        1990 2 tms 629 103  .164  26  .252  22  .846\r\nJim Edmonds<\/a>        2003 STL N 531 105  .198  13  .124  11  .846\r\nCarlos Lee<\/a>         2010 HOU N 649 121  .186  24  .198  20  .833\r\nBobby Darwin<\/a>       1972 MIN A 562 121  .215  29  .240  24  .828\r\nDave Kingman<\/a>       1975 NY  N 543 100  .184  16  .160  13  .812\r\nManny Ramirez<\/a>      2002 BOS A 518  91  .176  16  .176  13  .812\r\nMike Piazza        2002 NY  N 541 121  .224  32  .264  26  .812<\/pre>\n
And the other end of the spectrum:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nDick McAuliffe<\/a>     1968 DET A 658  78  .119  14  .179   0  .000\r\nRob Deer<\/a>           1990 MIL A 511  87  .170   8  .092   0  .000\r\nCraig Biggio<\/a>       1997 HOU N 744  78  .105  13  .167   0  .000\r\nRichie Ashburn<\/a>     1953 PHI N 604 117  .194  34  .291   1  .029\r\nIchiro Suzuki<\/a>      2009 SEA A 678  93  .137  25  .269   1  .040\r\nDavid Justice<\/a>      1992 ATL N 571 106  .186  24  .226   1  .042\r\nCurtis Granderson<\/a>  2009 DET A 710 106  .149  24  .226   1  .042\r\nMichael Bourn<\/a>      2009 HOU N 678  80  .118  23  .287   1  .043\r\nCarl Crawford<\/a>      2010 TB  A 663 132  .199  37  .280   2  .054\r\nKenny Lofton<\/a>       2002 2 tms 611  86  .141  18  .209   1  .056<\/pre>\n
With the exception of Rob Deer, who hit only eight ground-outs all year with a man on first and less than two outs, all of the people on the second list are a lot faster than those on the first.<\/p>\n
Here are the players who were at risk of grounding into a double-play in the highest percentage of their plate-appearances:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nPaul O'Neill<\/a>       1995 NY  A 543 169  .311  41  .243  25  .610\r\nTed Williams       1958 BOS A 517 160  .309  40  .250  21  .525\r\nMinnie Minoso      1953 CHI A 657 198  .301  46  .232  24  .522\r\nEarl Torgeson<\/a>      1954 PHI N 544 162  .298  29  .179  11  .379\r\nJim Rice<\/a>           1983 BOS A 689 201  .292  51  .254  31  .608\r\nTed Williams       1956 BOS A 503 144  .286  31  .215  13  .419\r\nJim Rice           1984 BOS A 708 202  .285  58  .287  36  .621\r\nFrank Thomas<\/a>       1996 CHI A 649 183  .282  33  .180  25  .758\r\nStan Musial<\/a>        1953 STL N 512 144  .281  35  .243  10  .286\r\nJim Rice           1985 BOS A 608 171  .281  45  .263  35  .778<\/pre>\n
Since major league baseball started keeping track of GIDPs, there have been eleven seasons of more than thirty. Jim Rice is responsible for three of them (including the top two) and all three show up on this list.<\/p>\n
The players with the fewest GIDP opportunities:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nTim Foli<\/a>           1980 PIT N 540  33  .061  10  .303   5  .500\r\nLuis Castillo<\/a>      2001 FLA N 612  52  .085  16  .308   6  .375\r\nJuan Pierre<\/a>        2006 CHI N 750  65  .087  17  .262   6  .353\r\nDon Kessinger<\/a>      1967 CHI N 628  55  .088  10  .182   3  .300\r\nFernando Vina<\/a>      2001 STL N 690  63  .091  17  .270   7  .412\r\nBill North<\/a>         1980 SF  N 500  46  .092  12  .261   4  .333\r\nMatty Alou<\/a>         1969 PIT N 746  70  .094  22  .314   5  .227\r\nWillie Wilson<\/a>      1979 KC  A 640  61  .095  10  .164   1  .100\r\nPete Rose<\/a>          1971 CIN N 709  68  .096  20  .294   9  .450\r\nPete Rose          1978 CIN N 731  70  .096  19  .271   8  .421<\/pre>\n
All of these players hit leadoff except for Tim Foli. But he hit second behind Omar Moreno, a player whose low on-base percentage and 129 steal attempts kept first base unoccupied for Foli most of the season.<\/p>\n
Here are the players who grounded out the most in these situations:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nRoberto Clemente<\/a>   1968 PIT N 557  81  .145  39  .481  13  .333\r\nRey Ordonez<\/a>        1996 NY  N 530  96  .181  46  .479  12  .261\r\nBilly Ripken<\/a>       1988 BAL A 559  88  .157  41  .466  14  .341\r\nWillie McGee<\/a>       1993 SF  N 519  86  .166  40  .465  12  .300\r\nEnos Cabell<\/a>        1979 HOU N 630  94  .149  42  .447  18  .429\r\nJohn Wathan<\/a>        1982 KC  A 502 101  .201  45  .446  26  .578\r\nMaury Wills<\/a>        1960 LA  N 559  70  .125  31  .443  11  .355\r\nRoberto Clemente   1963 PIT N 642 143  .223  63  .441  23  .365\r\nJulio Franco<\/a>       1987 CLE A 560 116  .207  51  .440  23  .451\r\nDavey Lopes<\/a>        1974 LA  N 613  66  .108  29  .439  10  .345<\/pre>\n
And the least:<\/p>\n
Player             Year Team   PA GPA   Pct  GO   Pct GDP   Pct\r\nRob Deer           1986 MIL A 546 117  .214   8  .068   4  .500\r\nHoward Johnson<\/a>     1989 NY  N 655 127  .194  10  .079   4  .400\r\nJose Valentin<\/a>      1996 MIL A 628 139  .221  11  .079   4  .364\r\nMark McGwire       1998 STL N 681 137  .201  11  .080   8  .727\r\nEllis Burks<\/a>        1987 BOS A 606  72  .119   6  .083   1  .167\r\nJonny Gomes<\/a>        2010 CIN N 571 132  .231  11  .083   4  .364\r\nChris Young<\/a>        2011 ARI N 659 114  .173  10  .088   3  .300\r\nReggie Smith<\/a>       1978 LA  N 531 100  .188   9  .090   4  .444\r\nRob Deer           1988 MIL A 556  98  .176   9  .092   4  .444\r\nRob Deer           1990 MIL A 511  87  .170   8  .092   0  .000<\/pre>\n
Of course, neither of these last two lists tell us much about the speed of the players, only about their tendencies to strike, ground or fly out. Fast players are often encouraged to make contact and hit the ball on the ground, so the first list contains a somewhat faster group of players than the second.<\/p>\n
The seasonal data (in csv format) for all players from 1952 to 2011 with at least 200 plate appearances can be found here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
There was a discussion recently on SABR-L about whether we can reliably determine that a player was slow from his offensive statistics. Several markers were proposed: low stolen base totals, a poor SB success rate, and few triples were some of those that were mentioned. So was a high number of grounded into double-plays (GIDP). […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":830,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[81,16171,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18976","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-features","category-fun-with-retrosheet","category-general"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18976","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/830"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18976"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18976\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18976"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18976"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18976"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}