{"id":279,"date":"2008-03-22T21:21:40","date_gmt":"2008-03-23T04:21:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2008\/03\/22\/is-piniellas-decision-on-fukudome-a-mistake\/"},"modified":"2008-03-22T21:22:37","modified_gmt":"2008-03-23T04:22:37","slug":"is-piniellas-decision-on-fukudome-a-mistake","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2008\/03\/22\/is-piniellas-decision-on-fukudome-a-mistake\/","title":{"rendered":"Is Piniella’s Decision on Fukudome a Mistake?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cubs skipper Lou Piniella recently unveiled a new lineup that would be more productive with Kosuke Fukudome leading off instead of hitting fifth.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

A few days ago, Cubs manager Lou Piniella announced that he’d tweaked his lineup and moved Alfonso Soriano out of the lead-off spot in favor of Ryan Theriot, inserted Soriano into the three hole, and penciled Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome into the number two slot. Piniella also averred that had he not inserted the left-handed batting Felix Pie into the eight hole, he would have preferred using Fukudome in the lead-off spot. Instead he’s going with the right-handed hitting Theriot in the lead-off spot to avoid bunching too many same-handed hitters together in the batting order.<\/p>\n

That certainly makes sense, but Piniella took a small step backwards on Saturday when, after “sleeping on it,” he chose to adjust his lineup again by moving Soriano to the two hole and dropping Fukudome to fifth in the order. Mathematically, his original gut instinct made more sense. Putting Fukudome in one of the first two spots will most likely generate the most runs for the Cubs. Moving Soriano to second and dropping Fukudome to fifth decreases their potential output. While the difference is negligible, it’s worth investigating nonetheless.<\/p>\n

The lineup analysis tool<\/a> at baseballmusings.com<\/a> shows that a lineup with Fukudome at the top of the Cubs’ order has the potential to score the most runs (statistics are based on CHONE<\/a> projections):<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Order<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nPlayer<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nPOS<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nAVG<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nOBA<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nSLG<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nKosuke Fukudome<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nRF<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.283<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.373<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.465<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nDerrek Lee <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n1B<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.301<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.390<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.524<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nGeovany Soto<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nC<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.275<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.351<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.464<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nAramis Ramirez <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n3B<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.297<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.361<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.541<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nAlfonso Soriano <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nLF<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.283<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.338<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.534<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nMark DeRosa<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n2B<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.274<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.353<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.417<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nRyan Theriot <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nSS<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.268<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.332<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.360<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nFelix Pie<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nCF<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.272<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.326<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.433<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nPitcher<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nSP<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.160<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n.182<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.191<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

The above lineup would be expected to score 5.118 runs per game, or 829 over the course of a season.<\/p>\n

Putting Soto in the three hole may be a bit optimistic and not quite as sexy as having Lee, a more traditional number three hitter, hit in that spot. Prior to last year’s breakout season at Triple-A Iowa in which he hit .353 with 26 homers and 109 RBIs in 110 games, followed by a cup of coffee in the bigs in which he batted .389 with a .433 on-base average and a .667 slugging percentage, Soto hadn’t done much in his six previous minor league seasons. The highest he’d ever batted was .272 in 2006, the most home runs he’d ever hit was nine in 2004, and the most runs he’d driven in was 48, also in 2004. Soto is batting .233 with no homers, five RBIs and four runs this spring, so it’s doubtful Piniella would put him in the three hole.<\/p>\n

Although the Fukudome-led lineup is potentially the most productive, Piniella has decided to go in a different direction:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Order<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nPlayer<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nPOS<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nAVG<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nOBA<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nSLG<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nRyan Theriot <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nSS<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.268<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.332<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.360<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nAlfonso Soriano<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nLF<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.283<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.338<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.534<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nDerrek Lee <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n1B<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.301<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.390<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.524<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nAramis Ramirez <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n3B<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.297<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.361<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.541<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nKosuke Fukudome<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nRF<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.283<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.373<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.465<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nMark DeRosa<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n2B<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.274<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.353<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.417<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nGeovany Soto<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nC<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.275<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.351<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.464<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nFelix Pie<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nCF<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.272<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.326<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.433<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9. <\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nPitcher<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\nSP<\/strong><\/font><\/td>\n.160<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n.182<\/strong> <\/font><\/td>\n.191<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n

The above lineup would be expected to score 5.054 runs per game, or 819 over the course of a season. It’s a more traditional lineup with the team’s top stolen base threat hitting first, their best overall hitter batting third, their top slugger hitting clean-up, and their least experienced batters occupying the seventh and eighth spots. And it’s only slightly less effective than the lineup he announced a few days ago (that lineup would have been expected to score 5.067 runs per game, or 821 on the season).<\/p>\n

The above assumes a lot\u00e2\u20ac\u201dthat the players will hit as expected, that Fukudome will acclimate well to the majors<\/a>, and that Soto will more closely resemble the hitter he was last year than the hitter he was from 2001-2006. It also fails to account for the “human factor.” For example, it assumes Soriano will be an effective number two hitter, even though he’s expressed displeasure about being moved from the lead-off spot, claiming he’s distracted at the plate when men are on base. Not to mention that Soriano is a career .161 hitter in the two hole and hasn’t batted in that spot since early in his career. But putting Soriano back in the lead-off spot could drop the Cubs below five runs a game. In fact, some of the least productive lineups feature Soriano at the top of the batting order.<\/p>\n

Piniella’s proposed lineup may not be as potentially productive as the “ideal” lineup, but a difference of 10 runs is hardly worth quibbling over. Assumptions aside, “Sweet Lou” seems to be on the right track.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cubs skipper Lou Piniella recently unveiled a new lineup that would be more productive with Kosuke Fukudome leading off instead of hitting fifth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-279","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-statistical-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=279"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/279\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=279"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=279"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=279"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}