{"id":29705,"date":"2015-07-11T14:30:37","date_gmt":"2015-07-11T18:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/seamheads.com\/?p=29705"},"modified":"2015-07-12T10:15:11","modified_gmt":"2015-07-12T14:15:11","slug":"is-the-decline-in-major-league-baseball-offense-over","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2015\/07\/11\/is-the-decline-in-major-league-baseball-offense-over\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the Decline in Major League Baseball Offense Over?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Offensive production in major league baseball has been steadily declining since it peaked in 2000.\u00a0 It appears that it may have reached a low point in 2014.\u00a0 At the midpoint of the 2015 season, offense is showing a slight increase over last year.<\/p>\n

The numbers below illustrate key hitting and pitching statistics for the peak year of 2000 and the last three years.\u00a0 The 2015 figures are for the first half of the season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hitting Stats<\/span><\/td>\n2000<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n2014<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Runs Per Game<\/td>\n5.14<\/td>\n4.17<\/td>\n4.07<\/td>\n4.11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Batting Average<\/td>\n.270<\/td>\n.253<\/td>\n.251<\/td>\n.253<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
On-Base Pct.<\/td>\n.345<\/td>\n.318<\/td>\n.311<\/td>\n.311<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Slugging Pct.<\/td>\n.437<\/td>\n.396<\/td>\n.386<\/td>\n.396<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
On-base Plus Slugging<\/td>\n.782<\/td>\n.714<\/td>\n.700<\/td>\n710<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pitching Stats<\/span><\/td>\n2000<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n2014<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ERA<\/td>\n4.76<\/td>\n3.86<\/td>\n3.74<\/td>\n3.82<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WHIP<\/td>\n1.468<\/td>\n1.300<\/td>\n1.275<\/td>\n1.279<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

From these figures, it can be seen that the decline in offense continued in all categories in 2014.\u00a0 However, in 2015, the trend has either stopped or been reversed. \u00a0Another indicator of offensive performance is the number of players who are on target to combine hitting for both average and power to achieve a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs.\u00a0 In 2014, only two players achieved all three (Victor Martinez and Jose Abreu) but at midseason, neither are on target to repeat in 2015.\u00a0 However, four others are on target (.300-15-50) and nine others are close (.290-13-45).\u00a0 Figures are for games through July 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
On Target<\/span><\/td>\n.300-15-50<\/span><\/td>\nComments<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bryce Harper<\/td>\n.347-25-60<\/td>\nBreakthrough Season<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nelson Cruz<\/td>\n.304-21-50<\/td>\nStarted very strong.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Paul Goldschmidt<\/td>\n.348-20-67<\/td>\nStrong MVP candidate.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Miguel Cabrera<\/td>\n.350-15-54<\/td>\nDerailed by injury.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Close<\/span><\/td>\n300-15-50<\/span><\/td>\nComments<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike Trout<\/td>\n.299-21-45<\/td>\nHas never made all three.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Josh Donaldson<\/td>\n.296-19-56<\/td>\nDoes everything well<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Manny Machado<\/td>\n.299-17-46<\/td>\nComing on strong<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Adrian Gonzalez<\/td>\n.291-15-50<\/td>\nMister consistency<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Anthony Rizzo<\/td>\n.292-15-45<\/td>\nEmerging star<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Adam Lind<\/td>\n.298-14-51<\/td>\nFlies under the radar.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Buster Posey<\/td>\n.304-14-57<\/td>\nBuilding HOF career.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Prince Fielder<\/td>\n.347-13-50<\/td>\nStrong comeback after 2014 surgery.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stephen Vogt<\/td>\n.293-13-53<\/td>\nOakland\u2019s best hitter.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

A number of theories have been advanced for the decline in offense since 2000.\u00a0 Probably the most significant is the greater control over the use of performance enhancing drugs (PEDs).\u00a0 Other factors are a perceived increase in the size of the strike zone at the low end, the arrival of an exceptional group of starting pitchers (Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, Madison Bumgarner, David Price, Zack Greinke, etc.), the improvement of bullpens with most teams able to send out a series of flame throwing relievers in the late innings and the all or nothing \u201cgrip it and rip it\u201d approach taken by many hitters which makes them more vulnerable to good pitching.<\/p>\n

Another change since 2000 that has possibly been under-reported is the significant change in walk and strikeout rates:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/span><\/td>\n2000<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n2014<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Strikeouts per game per team<\/td>\n6.45<\/td>\n7.55<\/td>\n7.70<\/td>\n7.57<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Walks per game per team<\/td>\n3.75<\/td>\n3.01<\/td>\n2.88<\/td>\n2.83<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Walk\/Strikeout Ratio<\/td>\n1.72<\/td>\n2.51<\/td>\n2.67<\/td>\n2.67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate have both resulted in decreased scoring.<\/p>\n

What has changed in 2015?\u00a0 The decline may have run its course but a more significant factor may be the arrival in recent years of a number of exceptional young hitters who are beginning to reach the prime of their careers (Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, George Springer, Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt, Buster Posey, Joc Pederson, etc.).<\/p>\n

There was talk during the off season that some changes, such as lowering the pitching mound, might be appropriate to return more offense to the game.\u00a0 The evidence so far in 2015 suggests that such changes would be premature.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Offensive production in major league baseball has been steadily declining since it peaked in 2000.\u00a0 It appears that it may have reached a low point in 2014.\u00a0 At the midpoint of the 2015 season, offense is showing a slight increase over last year. The numbers below illustrate key hitting and pitching statistics for the peak […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":140,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29705","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/140"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=29705"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29705\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=29705"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=29705"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=29705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}