{"id":30907,"date":"2016-07-09T14:32:29","date_gmt":"2016-07-09T18:32:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/?p=30907"},"modified":"2016-07-09T17:39:50","modified_gmt":"2016-07-09T21:39:50","slug":"offensive-production-in-the-major-leagues-continues-to-increase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/09\/offensive-production-in-the-major-leagues-continues-to-increase\/","title":{"rendered":"Offensive Production in the Major Leagues Continues to Increase"},"content":{"rendered":"

Offensive production in major league baseball steadily declined after peaking in 2000.\u00a0 It reached a low point in 2014 and showed an increase in 2015 followed by an even bigger increase in 2016.\u00a0The numbers below illustrate key hitting and pitching statistics for the peak year of 2000 and the most recent four years.\u00a0 The 2016 figures are for the first half of the season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hitting Stats<\/u><\/td>\n2000<\/u><\/td>\n2013<\/u><\/td>\n2014<\/u><\/td>\n2015<\/u><\/td>\n2016<\/u><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Runs per Game<\/td>\n5.14<\/td>\n4.17<\/td>\n4.07<\/td>\n4.25<\/td>\n4.50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Batting Average<\/td>\n.270<\/td>\n.253<\/td>\n.251<\/td>\n.254<\/td>\n.256<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
On-Base Percentage<\/td>\n.345<\/td>\n.318<\/td>\n.314<\/td>\n.317<\/td>\n.322<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Slugging Average<\/td>\n.437<\/td>\n.396<\/td>\n.386<\/td>\n.405<\/td>\n.418<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OPS<\/td>\n.782<\/td>\n.714<\/td>\n.700<\/td>\n.721<\/td>\n.740<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Pitching Stats<\/u><\/td>\n2000<\/td>\n2013<\/td>\n2014<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n2016<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ERA<\/td>\n4.76<\/td>\n.3.86<\/td>\n3.74<\/td>\n3.95<\/td>\n4.21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
WHIP<\/td>\n1.468<\/td>\n1.300<\/td>\n1.275<\/td>\n1.294<\/td>\n1.328<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

From these figures, it can be seen that the decline in offense continued in all categories in 2014.\u00a0 However, in 2015, the trend was reversed and the uptrend continued in 2016.<\/p>\n

Another indicator of offensive performance is the number of players who are on target to combine hitting for both average and power to achieve a .300 batting average, 30 home runs and 100 RBIs.\u00a0 In 2015, only one player achieved all three (Paul Goldschmidt) but at mid-season in 2016, seven players are on target to reach all three milestones (.300-15-50) and sixteen others are close (.290-13-45). \u00a0\u00a0Figures are for games through July 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Players on Target<\/u><\/td>\n.300-15-50<\/u><\/td>\nComments<\/u><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Robinson Cano<\/td>\n.303-19-54<\/td>\nStrong rebound season<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
David Ortiz<\/td>\n.338-19-65<\/td>\nCan he retire with these number<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Carlos Gonzalez<\/td>\n.321-18-51<\/td>\nAnother good year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Manny Machado<\/td>\n.329-18-50<\/td>\nMVP Candidate<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike Trout<\/td>\n.324-17-54<\/td>\nHas never had all three in same year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Victor Martinez<\/td>\n.318-16-50<\/td>\nAchieved all three in 2014<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ian Desmond<\/td>\n.317-15-52<\/td>\nThriving at new position, new team<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

These players are close to achieving .300-15-50 status in the first half of the 2016 season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player Name<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yoenis Cespedes<\/td>\n.294-20-48<\/td>\nThrives in Mets uniform<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Josh Donaldson<\/td>\n.298-20-56<\/td>\nRepeataing 2015 MVP numbers<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Carlos Beltran<\/td>\n.296-19-53<\/td>\nStrong rebound<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jake Lamb<\/td>\n.290-19-58<\/td>\nMay be emerging star<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Miguel Cabrera<\/td>\n.298-18-51<\/td>\nStill among the best<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mookie Betts<\/td>\n.294-17-55<\/td>\nDoes everything well<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Marcell Ozuna<\/td>\n.311-17-47<\/td>\nStrong comeback after poor 2015<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ian Kinsler<\/td>\n.293-16-52<\/td>\nStill going strong<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Paul Goldschmidt<\/td>\n.292-15-55<\/td>\nSurging after slow start<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jose Altuve<\/td>\n.347-14-49<\/td>\nRegularly fills stat sheet<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Matt Carpenter<\/td>\n.305-14-53<\/td>\nDoes it all for Cardinals<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Daniel Murphy<\/td>\n.347-14-53<\/td>\nLeads NL in hitting<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jackie Bradley<\/td>\n.294-13-53<\/td>\nOne of three Red Sox on list<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Eric Hosmer<\/td>\n.303-13-49<\/td>\nKansas City\u2019s big gun<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wilson Ramos<\/td>\n.340-13-46<\/td>\nFlies under the radar<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jonathan Schoop<\/td>\n.301-13-47<\/td>\nKeeps getting better<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

While overall offense tends to increase slightly in the second half of the season, players with strong performances in the first half tend to have difficulty maintaining that level.\u00a0 Thus, about five players are likely to achieve all three targets at the end of the season.\u00a0 There are 12 players with 20 or more home runs at the halfway point but none are hitting over .300.<\/p>\n

Another change since 2000 that has possibly been under-reported is the significant change in walk and strikeout rates:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/td>\n\n

2000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

2013<\/td>\n2014<\/td>\n2015<\/td>\n\n

2016<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Strikeouts per game per team<\/td>\n\n

6.45<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

7.55<\/td>\n7.70<\/td>\n7.71<\/td>\n\n

8.00<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Walks per game per team<\/td>\n\n

3.75<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

3.01<\/td>\n2.88<\/td>\n2.90<\/td>\n\n

3.12<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

Strikeou\/Walk Ratio<\/td>\n\n

1.72<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

2.51<\/td>\n2.67<\/td>\n2.66<\/td>\n\n

2.56<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Strikeouts keep increasing and walks are on the upswing after dipping below 3.00 in 2014.\u00a0 The increase in walk rate in 2016 contributes to the increase in offense.<\/p>\n

What has changed in the last two years?\u00a0 The decline may have run its course in 2014, but a more significant factor may be the arrival in recent years of a number of exceptional young hitters who are beginning to reach the prime of their careers (Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Manny Machado, George Springer, Paul Goldschmidt, Buster Posey, the Red Sox trio of Bradley, Betts and Xander Bogaerts and the Pirates outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco).<\/p>\n

There was talk after the 2014 season that some changes, such as lowering the pitching mound, might be appropriate to return more offense to the game.\u00a0 The evidence in 2015 and 2016 suggests that such changes would be premature.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Offensive production in major league baseball steadily declined after peaking in 2000.\u00a0 It reached a low point in 2014 and showed an increase in 2015 followed by an even bigger increase in 2016.\u00a0The numbers below illustrate key hitting and pitching statistics for the peak year of 2000 and the most recent four years.\u00a0 The 2016 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":140,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t