{"id":32694,"date":"2019-02-12T15:34:17","date_gmt":"2019-02-12T20:34:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/?p=32694"},"modified":"2019-02-15T14:51:08","modified_gmt":"2019-02-15T19:51:08","slug":"koufax-and-kershaw-and-the-hall-of-fame","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/12\/koufax-and-kershaw-and-the-hall-of-fame\/","title":{"rendered":"Koufax and Kershaw and the Hall of Fame"},"content":{"rendered":"

Consider a pitcher who recorded the following distinctions during his career:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Won the Cy Young Award three times<\/li>\n
  2. Won the ERA title five times<\/li>\n
  3. Was an All Star seven times<\/li>\n
  4. Was voted MVP (Most Valuable Player)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Sandy Koufax did all of these things in twelve seasons in the major leagues with the Dodgers.\u00a0\u00a0 And, of course, he is in the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n

    But here is an interesting coincidence.\u00a0 Clayton Kershaw has accomplished the exact same distinctions <\/strong>in eleven seasons with the Dodgers.\u00a0 And so, it would appear obvious that he has already posted \u201cHall of Fame numbers\u201d during his career.<\/p>\n

    But is there a MORE PRECISE WAY to \u201cdemonstrate\u201d that Koufax and Kershaw have the numbers to justify their being in the Hall?<\/p>\n

    Well, yes there is, and it is called the CAWS Career Gauge (where CAWS is an acronym for career assessment\/win shares).\u00a0 <\/em>\u00a0The CAWS Gauge has been developed over a period of fifteen years by a retired mathematics professor who is a member of SABR (Society for American Baseball Research) \u2013 and it is arguably one of the best systems to determine whether a player posted \u201cHOF numbers\u201d during his career.<\/em><\/p>\n

    The Gauge has established a series of \u201cHall of Fame benchmarks\u201d to determine whether a player has posted the numbers during his career that would appear to make him a valid candidate for the Hall.\u00a0\u00a0 For a pitcher, a CAWS career score of 220 would normally indicate that he had numbers worthy of possible HOF induction.<\/p>\n

    But what of a pitcher who had a shorter but great career like Koufax and did not reach the 220 benchmark for that reason?\u00a0\u00a0 After a great deal of research, the CAWS gauge has established other benchmarks as well.\u00a0 And both Koufax and Kershaw have met one of the more interesting benchmarks.<\/p>\n

    I have found that there are only eight pitchers in the modern era (since 1920) who did not reach the 220 benchmark but who did achieve another distinction: a CAWS score of 180 in fewer than 2400 innings pitched – and EACH HAS BEEN ELECTED TO THE HALL WHEN ELIGIBLE.\u00a0 Here are those pitchers.<\/p>\n

    [IP = innings pitched, CWS = career win shares, CV = core value (the ten best seasons) and CAWS = CV + .25(CWS \u2013 CV)]<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    <\/td>\nIP<\/strong><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Pedro Martinez<\/strong><\/td>\n2297<\/strong><\/td>\n224<\/strong><\/td>\n200<\/strong><\/td>\n206<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Mariano Rivera<\/strong><\/td>\n1283<\/strong><\/td>\n272<\/strong><\/td>\n175<\/strong><\/td>\n199<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Sandy Koufax<\/strong><\/td>\n2324<\/strong><\/td>\n194<\/strong><\/td>\n190<\/strong><\/td>\n191<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Hoyt Wilhelm<\/strong><\/td>\n2254<\/strong><\/td>\n256<\/strong><\/td>\n168<\/strong><\/td>\n190<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Goose Gossage<\/strong><\/td>\n1809<\/strong><\/td>\n223<\/strong><\/td>\n173<\/strong><\/td>\n186<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Roy Halladay<\/strong><\/td>\n2297<\/strong><\/td>\n194<\/strong><\/td>\n183<\/strong><\/td>\n186<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Clayton Kershaw<\/td>\n2096<\/td>\n188<\/td>\n182<\/td>\n184<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Dizzy Dean<\/strong><\/td>\n1967<\/strong><\/td>\n181<\/strong><\/td>\n180<\/strong><\/td>\n180<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    <\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    For five of these players, the numbers represent career numbers.\u00a0\u00a0 For Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw, each of them reached the benchmark at some point during their career (Pedro and Halladay after thirteen seasons and Clayton after just eleven seasons).<\/p>\n

    So, each of these players has been elected to the Hall as he became eligible \u2013 indicating that the voters certainly seem to agree that the 180\/2400 CAWS benchmark does indicate obvious HOF numbers for a pitcher.<\/p>\n

    Mike Hoban, Ph.D.<\/em><\/p>\n

    Professor Emeritus (mathematics) \u2013 City U of NY<\/em><\/p>\n

    Author of <\/em>DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook<\/p>\n

    profhoban@gmail.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Consider a pitcher who recorded the following distinctions during his career: Won the Cy Young Award three times Won the ERA title five times Was an All Star seven times Was voted MVP (Most Valuable Player) Sandy Koufax did all of these things in twelve seasons in the major leagues with the Dodgers.\u00a0\u00a0 And, of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,19,4235],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-prof-hobans-hall-of-fame-blog","category-top-stories"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32694\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}