{"id":32714,"date":"2019-02-17T15:41:46","date_gmt":"2019-02-17T20:41:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/?p=32714"},"modified":"2019-02-17T15:41:46","modified_gmt":"2019-02-17T20:41:46","slug":"a-problem-with-war-defensive-value","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2019\/02\/17\/a-problem-with-war-defensive-value\/","title":{"rendered":"A Problem with WAR = Defensive Value"},"content":{"rendered":"

My primary research interest has always been determining which players had the best seasons—and the best careers.\u00a0 That is why (since the publication of WIN SHARES<\/em> in 2002) I have used win shares as the basis for my system of evaluating a player\u2019s career (CAWS Career Gauge).<\/p>\n

As a mathematician, it is difficult for me to understand how any metric could do a better job than win shares in evaluating a player\u2019s season AFTER the season is over.<\/p>\n

But, as a researcher, I try to keep an open mind.\u00a0 So, although I have not studied WAR in any real depth, I decided to see how the numbers for the 2018 season look between Win Shares and WAR.\u00a0 (I do have the impression that some people think that a player\u2019s WAR indicates how good a season he had).<\/em><\/p>\n

I did not get very far in the comparison before I ran into a real \u201cproblem.\u201d\u00a0 And I am hopeful that someone who understands WAR reasonably well will be able to help me understand how this result is possible—that is, if there is anyone who understands WAR well.<\/em><\/p>\n

In 2018, both WS and WAR have Mookie Betts and Mike Trout ranked #1 & 2 among position players:\u00a0 Betts = 38.8 WS and 10.9 WAR while Trout = 38.2 WS and 10.2 WAR.\u00a0 OK so far.\u00a0 It is in the #3 spot that the question arises.\u00a0 (Numbers from the BASEBALL GAUGE<\/a> at seamheads.com and\/or baseball-reference.com<\/a>).<\/em><\/p>\n

WS has Matt Chapman ranked at #18 with 25.6 win shares (a very good season).\u00a0 But WAR has him ranked at #3 with 8.2 WAR.\u00a0 That is quite a difference.\u00a0\u00a0 Is WAR really suggesting that Chapman had the third best season by a position player in 2018?\u00a0 <\/strong>\u00a0It would appear so \u2013 even though this result is clearly not credible.<\/p>\n

WS has Alex Bregman as the #3 player at 35.5 win shares (an MVP type season) while WAR has him at #8 at 6.9 WAR.\u00a0 Why the big difference in ranking?\u00a0 It would appear that inappropriate credit for fielding is the key factor<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Is it possible that Chapman\u2019s \u201cfielding value\u201d (at third base) can be that important in terms of his contribution to his team?\u00a0 That is really the essential question.\u00a0 How much \u201cvalue\u201d is it possible for a third baseman\u2019s glove to add to a team\u2019s success ?<\/p>\n

So, who had the \u201cbetter season\u201d—Bregman or Chapman?<\/p>\n

Here are some \u201cold fashioned offensive numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bregman = .286 BA, 170 hits, 31 hr, 103 rbi, 105 runs, .926 OPS, 156 OPS+<\/p>\n

Chapman\u00a0 = .278 BA, 152 hits,\u00a0 24 hr, 68 rbi, 100 runs, .864 OPS, 136 OPS+<\/p>\n

Actually, WS and WAR do agree that Bregman\u2019s offense was superior. WAR had Bregman\u2019s at 7.5 and Chapman\u2019s at 5.0, while WS had 29.1 and 20.4, respectively.<\/p>\n

OK, so what is the problem?\u00a0 WAR\u2019s love of Chapman\u2019s fielding appears to be \u201cway off base.\u201d This appears to be at the crux of the \u201cproblem.\u201d WS awarded Bregman 6.4 and Chapman 5.3 for fielding.\u00a0 WAR awarded Bregman -0.6 and Chapman 3.5.\u00a0 WHAT?<\/p>\n

It appears that WS suggests that Bregman\u2019s value was 82% offense and 18 % defense, while Chapman\u2019s value was 80% offense and 20% defense. WAR seems to give considerably more value to Chapman\u2019s fielding (almost double).<\/p>\n

The WAR numbers are not quite as clear (as usual) but WAR apparently suggests that all of Bregman\u2019s value was in offense and his fielding was terrible (how else to interpret a negative fielding WAR?) while something like 38% of Chapman\u2019s value was in fielding.\u00a0 I took a look at Bregman\u2019s actual fielding numbers and cannot understand how his fielding can ACTUALLY SUBTRACT from his WAR—his 7.5 offensive WAR becomes 6.9 for the season.\u00a0 Forget \u201creplacement\u201d value \u2013 this conclusion defies common sense.<\/strong><\/p>\n

I think my biggest problem is with the credibility of that 3.5 WAR for Chapman\u2019s fielding. How realistic is that? Brooks Robinson is generally considered to be perhaps the best defensive third baseman of all time (16 gold gloves). In 23 seasons, Brooks had a fielding WAR greater than 3.0 just twice. Willie Mays won 12 gold gloves in center field and he never had a defensive WAR greater than 3.0. But Chapman had a 3.5 (at third base) in 2018?\u00a0 REALLY?<\/p>\n

So, you can see my problem. Is Matt Chapman really that good a fielder? And even if he is, can fielding (at third base) count so much that we are to believe that he was the #3 best position player of 2018 with an offensive WAR of 5.0 (compared to Bregman\u2019s 7.5)?\u00a0 That makes no sense.<\/p>\n

This result certainly seems to raise the question as to whether WAR is \u201covervaluing\u201d fielding (especially for a third baseman).\u00a0<\/strong>And, therefore, how valuable can it be for comparing the seasonal value for different players?<\/p>\n

I find these to be intriguing questions. I have studied win shares and consider it to be very effective in evaluating a player\u2019s season. But I have not studied WAR in any depth and I have to admit that a result like this raises many questions in my mind about its ability to compare players\u2019 seasons.<\/p>\n

Even if I were to believe that Matt Chapman had the greatest fielding season at third base ever, I still would have difficulty seeing his 2018 season as the 3rd<\/sup> best in baseball. His #18 ranking with win shares seems more realistic.<\/p>\n

Thank you for your time.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Mike Hoban, Ph.D.<\/em><\/p>\n

Professor Emeritus (mathematics) \u2013 City U of NY<\/em><\/p>\n

Author of <\/em>DEFINING GREATNESS: A Hall of Fame Handbook<\/p>\n

profhoban@gmail.com<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My primary research interest has always been determining which players had the best seasons—and the best careers.\u00a0 That is why (since the publication of WIN SHARES in 2002) I have used win shares as the basis for my system of evaluating a player\u2019s career (CAWS Career Gauge). As a mathematician, it is difficult for me […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-prof-hobans-hall-of-fame-blog"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32714","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32714"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32714\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32714"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32714"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32714"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}