It appears that WAR, in attempting to assign a single number to represent a player\u2019s season, has a problem with fielding.\u00a0\u00a0 And the problem is not so much with the player\u2019s defensive WAR score \u2013 but rather with trying to COMBINE this score with the offensive WAR.\u00a0\u00a0 A very good or very poor fielding score appears to seriously distort the player\u2019s total WAR score.<\/p>\n
As an example, Matt Chapman had a great fielding season at third base in 2018 and his situation illustrates quite well why WAR does a relatively good job of evaluating his offensive value (oWAR) and his defensive value (dWAR) \u2013 but appears to stumble when trying to COMBINE the values to determine his OVERALL WAR value for the season.<\/p>\n
If WAR was a consistent entity, there would be no way that the WAR scores could be so different for the same player.\u00a0\u00a0 In bWAR, the defensive portion appears to represent 43% of Chapman\u2019s total 2018 value \u2013 while in fWAR, the defense appears to represent about 30% of the total value. \u00a0Again, quite a difference \u2013 raising questions about what is going on with WAR.<\/p>\n
It appears to be obvious that Matt Chapman\u2019s defensive work is being OVERVALUED when combined with his offense in both of these WAR calculations.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0And remember this is a THIRD BASEMAN.\u00a0\u00a0 Just how much value can a third baseman\u2019s defense have to his team?<\/p>\n
It is this COMBINING of the offense and defense that appears to be the \u201cproblem\u201d with calculating a single WAR score for a season for some players.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n This implies a serious question regarding WAR.\u00a0\u00a0 We may be able to \u201ctrust\u201d the separate scores (oWAR and dWAR) for a player to some extent \u2013 but NOT always the combined total (particularly where a player is considered to be a very good or very poor fielder).<\/p>\n And, of course, the bigger question is:\u00a0 How much faith can be put in the \u00a0WAR results when they differ so much depending on who calculates them?\u00a0 As a mathematician, I am programmed to distrust any \u201cformulas\u201d that produce such varied results.\u00a0 WAR is simply NOT a mathematically sound metric.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong>But, of course, we already knew that since B-R in its explanation of WAR states: \u201cBut WAR is necessarily an approximation and will never be as precise or accurate as one would like.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n It would appear that if one wishes to see which players really had the best season, Win Shares (WS) would seem to be the more mathematically sound (and realistic) system for comparing total season value.<\/strong><\/p>\n For 2018, according to WS, Matt Chapman is ranked #22 offensively \u2013 quite similar to the B-R oWAR placement mentioned above.\u00a0\u00a0 When his defense is combined, he moves up to #18 in overall ranking.\u00a0 \u00a0His defense counts for 21% of his total \u2013 a seemingly more realistic assessment when compared to the 43% and 30% awarded by WAR (above).<\/p>\n Would not logic (and baseball intuition) dictate that there has to be a \u201ccap\u201d on the value of a player\u2019s defense \u2013 depending on the position played?\u00a0\u00a0 This appears to be a missing piece in the WAR calculations.<\/em><\/p>\n Some might argue that Chapman is not being given enough credit by WS for his defense \u2013 and that may be true.\u00a0\u00a0 But, in any case, there has to be an assumption (a judgment) as to how much value can be awarded for the defense of a third baseman.\u00a0\u00a0 And that judgment is apparently at the heart of WAR\u2019s \u201cproblem\u201d with fielding value.\u00a0 WS appears to have made the more appropriate judgment \u2013 especially when you consider how different are the two WAR calculations in some cases.<\/p>\n The Strange Case of Charlie Blackmon<\/p>\n Perhaps the most dramatic example of how questionable the bWAR system can be (because of the \u201cfielding problem\u201d) is that of Charlie Blackmon in 2018.<\/p>\n For the 2018 season, for example, Jose Altuve is ranked #22 by WS, #21 by fWAR and #20 by bWAR.\u00a0\u00a0 Similarly, Francisco Lindor is ranked #6 by WS and #5 by both bWAR and fWAR.<\/p>\n Of course, these results are not surprising since we would expect the results of the systems to be reasonably close to one another.\u00a0\u00a0 And they are much of the time.<\/p>\n Here are the top 15 ranked position players in WS for 2018:<\/p>\n Twelve (12) of these players are also in the top fifteen (15) when ranked by bWAR.\u00a0\u00a0 And the other three are relatively close:<\/p>\n #11 Trevor Story is #16 in bWAR,<\/p>\n #15 Paul Goldschmidt is #19 in bWAR and<\/p>\n #7 Matt Carpenter is #21 in bWAR.<\/p>\n It is when fielding becomes an issue that WAR sometimes seems unable to combine the two numbers (offense and defense) realistically.\u00a0\u00a0 And this is perhaps best illustrated by Charlie Blackmon\u2019s 2018 rankings.<\/p>\n WS awarded Blackmon 24.6 win shares for the season (a very good season) and has him ranked as the #23 best position player.<\/p>\n fWAR did not like Blackmon\u2019s fielding very much and this detracted from his offensive achievements (to some extent) and his fWAR = 2.8.\u00a0 He was ranked #66 for the season.\u00a0\u00a0 (This simply seems to illustrate that in any form of WAR good or bad fielding is somewhat exaggerated.)<\/em><\/p>\n But it is bWAR\u2019s ranking of Charlie Blackmon\u2019s 2018 season that is really mind-boggling.<\/p>\n According to B-R, Blackmon\u2019s oWAR for 2018 was 3.5 (the #53 best offense for a position player).\u00a0\u00a0 However, his dWAR was \u20133.1 which resulted in a total bWAR score of 0.8 \u2013 and A RANKING OF #231.<\/p>\n Yes, you read that correctly.\u00a0\u00a0 Win shares says Charlie Blackmon was ranked #23.\u00a0 \u00a0fWAR says his fielding was bad and his WAR was 2.8 and he was ranked #66.\u00a0\u00a0 And bWAR says his fielding was a disaster and his WAR was 0.8 and ranks him as #231.\u00a0\u00a0 Both versions of WAR appear to be giving too much value to his fielding but bWAR really seems to have lost all perspective.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 (And how can the two WAR scores differ by as much as 0.8 and 2.8?)<\/em><\/p>\n One last question.\u00a0 How does a player go from being the #53 offensive player in 2018 according to oWAR to being ranked as the #231overall player \u2013 no matter how poor his fielding?\u00a0\u00a0 Does anyone really think that makes any sense?<\/p>\n Thank you for your time.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n\n
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