Analysts thus far have agreed that it probably won\u2019t matter a great deal. (E.g.<\/em>, Ben Clemens, https:\/\/blogs.fangraphs.com\/the-three-batter-minimum-barely-matters\/<\/a>, December 18, 2019). Among other points, they have noted that the role of LOOGY\u2019s and other one-out relief specialists has been declining and doesn\u2019t figure into an appreciable number of appearances, that it will shave little time off the length of games, and that it won\u2019t materially affect strategy and game results.<\/p>\n Prompted by the impending rule, I examined data on number of pitchers per game and time of games per nine innings, and have found that there is a strong and interesting relationship between the two. Here is what the data show since World War II \u2013 what I think is fair to consider the modern era of baseball:<\/p>\n The data are from Baseball-Reference.com. <\/p>\n Both the number of pitchers used and the time of games have increased steadily over this period. At the outset of the era, about two pitchers were used on average per game, and the average game length was two hours or a little over. The averages climbed in synch to about two and three-quarter pitchers and hours in the late 1980\u2019s. In 1989, an interesting divergence occurs. The number of pitchers per game jumped and increased more steeply. The time of games continued to rise, but not as sharply. This coincides with the advent of what I have called the LaRussa Orthodoxy \u2013 the replacement of the fireman model with the use of multiple relievers, match-up focused, and closer-driven. (Mark Pelesh, https:\/\/tht.fangraphs.com\/ending-the-larussa-orthodoxy-part-1\/<\/a>, August 28, 2019; https:\/\/tht.fangraphs.com\/ending-the-larussa-orthodoxy-part-2\/<\/a>, September 4, 2019). By the late 20-teens, the number of pitchers per game was over four and heading up, and the time of games was three-plus hours.<\/p>\n In light of these data and trends, it is unsurprising that Commissioner Manfred would look for something on pitcher usage to arrest the upward climb in the length of games.\u00a0 While length of games and pace of play are not quite the same thing, the delays attendant to pitching changes \u2013 visits to the mound, entry of relievers, warmup pitches \u2013 affect both. Reducing those could move the game back toward when the games lasted less than three hours and must have had a crisper feel. But is the three-batter rule the right solution?<\/p>\n I submit that the rule is a blunt and misdirected way to try to get at the problem. As Ben Clemens stated in his post, the rule is \u201cinelegant\u201d and will likely confer a narrow benefit \u2013 \u201c30 seconds and some tiny sliver of runs per game,\u201d according to Clemens. I propose that Major League Baseball instead look to a rule used in another sport to address the issue. In soccer, teams are restricted to a limited number of substitutions per game \u2013 usually three with possibly one additional sub if games go into extra time. MLB could adapt this rule and restrict the number of relief pitchers used per game. There could be a limit for a normal nine inning game with additional relievers allowed for extra innings. Exceptions to the limits could be permitted for (genuine) injuries. Provided that teams stayed within the limit on number of relief pitchers, they could pitch for as little or as long as the manager wished.<\/p>\n Instead of a kludgy rule restricting the number of batters faced, a rule addressing the number of pitchers allowed per game is more likely to reduce length and increase pace of play. The data I have assembled support drawing upon the soccer substitution rule and suggest what the baseball limits should be. The data show that holding the number of pitchers to three or fewer per game strongly correlates to games under three hours. Accordingly, the soccer-inspired rule for baseball would allow for three pitchers per game \u2013 a starting pitcher and two relievers. If the game goes into extra innings, a team would get an additional relief pitcher for each three-inning increment. Again, injuries would not count against the limits. And for a starting pitcher who gets shelled and is taken out in the early innings (perhaps defined as before the game becomes official) a replacement for the starter could be permitted and not count against the three-pitcher limit. If a two-reliever limit per nine innings is too abrupt a change, MLB could consider a three-reliever limit for a period of time to allow for a transition. While the data don\u2019t indicate that this would significantly reduce game length, it would arrest the upward trend in time of games per nine innings and eliminate the games when long lists of relievers are used.<\/p>\n What about the objections of Joe Maddon and others that a rule restricting pitcher usage would detract from the strategy managers can employ and thereby lessen interest? That objection, I believe, should not apply to the rule I am proposing. We can look to the sport that inspires the proposed rule for the reasons why. In soccer, when a manager utilizes his allowed substitutions and who he substitutes are key strategic decisions. They are made based on the state of the game and the team\u2019s needs as the game evolves. Each one is made knowing that the substitutions are scarce assets and have to be deployed for maximum effect. In baseball, with a limit on the number of relief pitchers allowed, a manager would be faced with similar strategic decisions. He might still bring in a pitcher just to face one batter if the game circumstances warranted and the risk\/reward balance made it worthwhile. With a one-run lead in the seventh or eighth inning, the bases loaded, and Bryce Harper up, for example, an opposing manager might well bring in his lefty relief ace even though it would burn one of his allowed pitchers. The need for strategic judgment would be enhanced compared to the frequent push-button matchup managing that often now occurs. Almost every decision to use a relief pitcher would become a source of discussion and debate for commentators, fans, and pundits.<\/p>\n I acknowledge that this proposal is probably not a cure-all for the problem of length of games and pace of play. Other factors are likely contributors, especially hitters who habitually step out of the batter\u2019s box and repeat their set-up routine after every <\/em>pitch \u2013 a phenomenon also of recent vintage (take a look at replays of games as recently as the 1970\u2019s and \u201880\u2019s). But a rule limiting the number of relief pitchers allowed would likely help a great deal and make baseball even more intriguing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" When baseball resumes, the three-batter minimum rule for pitchers will be implemented. Under this rule, relief pitchers would be required to face at least three batters or to complete the half-inning before they could be taken out. The rule appears to be an attempt to address the related problems of pace of play and length […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1889,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,4235],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-top-stories"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1889"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33282"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33289,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33282\/revisions\/33289"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/PitchersTG-1-e1587489042884.png\")
<\/a>
Note that I have converted the minutes in Time\/9I to a percentage of 60 minutes.<\/p><\/div>\n