{"id":600,"date":"2008-08-01T09:25:28","date_gmt":"2008-08-01T16:25:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2008\/08\/01\/laying-odds-part-2-national-league\/"},"modified":"2009-03-18T20:29:34","modified_gmt":"2009-03-19T03:29:34","slug":"laying-odds-part-2-national-league","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2008\/08\/01\/laying-odds-part-2-national-league\/","title":{"rendered":"Laying Odds Part 2: National League"},"content":{"rendered":"

Josh Deitch follows up with a look at the divisional races in the N.L. and sets odds for the division winners.\u00c2\u00a0 How much did the Manny Ramirez trade shake up the balance of power in the league?\u00c2\u00a0 Find out inside\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/em> As I wrote part one<\/font><\/a> of my analysis, one thought continued to run through my head, This is a long column\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll probably have to break it into two.<\/em>\u00c2\u00a0 So, even while I finished up my look at the A.L. East, I happened to be planning my breakdowns for the National League.\u00c2\u00a0 In all honesty, I did not plan on spending a lot of time in the N.L. West.\u00c2\u00a0 It was a bad division.\u00c2\u00a0 A team one or two games over .500 could have won it.\u00c2\u00a0 I was basically going to quickly lay odds, suggest that the last place finisher in the division trade places with the best team in Triple-A, and move on.\u00c2\u00a0 Then Boston traded Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers.<\/p>\n

N.L. WEST:\u00c2\u00a0 <\/strong>Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and <\/em>Rockies<\/em>?<\/em>\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Los Angeles<\/em><\/strong> Dodgers<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<\/em> <\/em><\/p>\n

There was a scene in the last season of Deadwood that inexorably changed the way I looked at the show.\u00c2\u00a0 George Hearst (Gerald McRaney), a business man looking to gain control of the camp on the eve of its inclusion into the United States, meets with Alma Garret (Molly Parker), a widow that owns one of the most lucrative gold claims in the black hills.\u00c2\u00a0 Hearst menacingly asks Alma to sell her claim and leave Deadwood.\u00c2\u00a0 Alma refuses.\u00c2\u00a0 Hearst listens coolly to her rejection, calmly walks her to the door, and sees her out.\u00c2\u00a0 When he closes the door, he soliloquizes that he ardently had to restrain himself from raping and killing the widow.\u00c2\u00a0 At this point, I had to hit pause on my DVR.\u00c2\u00a0 Two thoughts raced through my mind:\u00c2\u00a0 Did he just say that? and Wow, that\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s f—ed up!\u00c2\u00a0 Hearst transformed from morally ambiguous businessman to ethically bankrupt villain.\u00c2\u00a0 I could never look at him the same way again.<\/p>\n

This past week-and-a-half acted as Manny Ramirez\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s soliloquy.\u00c2\u00a0 Many people out there will never be able to observe his play without thinking of his recent shenanigans.\u00c2\u00a0 While he has never been the picture of hustle or sanity, he took his act to a whole new level this past week.\u00c2\u00a0 Multiple times, he took almost six seconds to run to first base.\u00c2\u00a0 Then, when the Fenway faithful responded by booing the lackluster effort, Manny blamed the Red Sox organization for turning the crowd against him.\u00c2\u00a0 For eight years, Boston fans put up and even accepted Manny\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s routine, but as the specter of a new contract loomed on the horizon, he managed to poison that dirty water.\u00c2\u00a0 If a player on one of my teams had acted like Ramirez, he would not have seen a field until he apologized to every single one of his teammates.\u00c2\u00a0 Instead, Manny\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s behavior will be rewarded with a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract.\u00c2\u00a0 This past week, he transformed from an awesome hitter with personality quirks that could be entertaining into a remorselessly selfish businessman with inexplicably quick hands.\u00c2\u00a0 I will never look at him the same way again.<\/p>\n

That being said, the Dodgers outfield now consists of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, and Manny Ramirez.\u00c2\u00a0 In a division where there hasn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t been a clear cut favorite since mid-June, a hitter like Ramirez pushes the Dodgers into another stratosphere.\u00c2\u00a0 Manny will behave under Joe Torre, continue to produce, and drive L.A. to first place by September 1st<\/sup>.\u00c2\u00a0 Despite the fact that the keystone combination of Jeff Kent and Nomar Garciaparra borders on 230 years old, the Dodgers have some serious young talent in Russell Martin, Kemp, Ethier, Loney, and pitchers Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, and closer Jonathan Broxton.\u00c2\u00a0 Ultimately, Ramirez will have an immediate impact on a team that ranks thirteenth in the N.L. in runs scored and fifteenth in slugging.\u00c2\u00a0 This was a no-brainer of a move for the Dodgers.<\/p>\n

ODDS: 5-1<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong>Arizona<\/em><\/strong> Diamondbacks<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Diamondbacks have been one of the most exciting stories of the year.\u00c2\u00a0 Just like the Rays, Arizona has proven that teams can compete with young talent, as long as that talent is really good.\u00c2\u00a0 With Brandon Webb and Dan Haren at the front end of the Arizona rotation, they are a force rolling into August.\u00c2\u00a0 The Diamondbacks\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 staff ranks first in the N.L. in WHIP and quality starts, second in opponent batting average, and third in ERA.<\/p>\n

However, their lineup is young and inconsistent.\u00c2\u00a0 Conor Jackson, in his fourth year of service, leads the team in batting average and OPS, while rookie Mark Reynolds leads spearheads Arizona\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s offense in homers, RBI, and runs scored.\u00c2\u00a0 If Stephen Drew or Chris Young struggle for a stretch, so does the offense.\u00c2\u00a0 The Diamondbacks made no significant moves at the deadline, and now find themselves in direct competition with a Dodgers team that has notably upgraded its offense.\u00c2\u00a0 Every single L.A. hitter will be better with Ramirez hitting in the middle of their lineup.\u00c2\u00a0 These next three games against the Dodgers will be very interesting to watch.<\/p>\n

ODDS: 10-1<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong>Colorado<\/em><\/strong> <\/em><\/strong>Rockies<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Rockies are done.\u00c2\u00a0 The only reason I included them on this list is in appreciation of the run they went on to finish last season.\u00c2\u00a0 Before the end of the month, Brian Fuentes will be sent somewhere on a waiver trade, and lots of young players will see more substantial playing time.\u00c2\u00a0 In a summer movie season that saw the release of blockbusters such as the Dark Knight and Iron Man, the Colorado Rockies are The Wackness.\u00c2\u00a0 Denver residents, time to start quoting Dumb and Dumber: \u00e2\u20ac\u0153So, you\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re saying there\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a chance\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/p>\n

ODDS:\u00c2\u00a0 1,000-1<\/strong>
\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

N.L. CENTRAL:\u00c2\u00a0 <\/strong>Cubs, <\/em>Brewers,<\/em> Cardinals<\/em>\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Chicago<\/em><\/strong> Cubs<\/em><\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<\/em> <\/em><\/p>\n

In a series against the rival Brewers that experts described as too close to call and carrying playoff implications, the Cubs just laid the smack down.\u00c2\u00a0 After squeaking out the first win with a late inning rally, the Cubs went on to sweep the series, outscoring Milwaukee in those final three games 25-7.\u00c2\u00a0 With the return of Alfonso Soriano and the surprising success of Ryan Dempster as a starter, the Cubs may be the most talented team in the National League.\u00c2\u00a0 Their offense ranks first in batting average, runs scored, on-base percentage, and OPS.\u00c2\u00a0 Their pitching allows a National League leading .243 opponent batting average, and ranks second in ERA, saves, WHIP, and quality starts.\u00c2\u00a0 On top of all that, the Cubs have a run differential of +130!\u00c2\u00a0 The team that ranks second in that department has a run differential of +82.\u00c2\u00a0 Umm, wow!\u00c2\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n

Perhaps the only weakness that the Cubs have, besides Jason Marquis in their starting rotation, is the bullpen.\u00c2\u00a0 Kerry Wood has been shaky at best as a closer, and now has been sidelined by a blister.\u00c2\u00a0 Carlos Marmol has run hot and cold.\u00c2\u00a0 But since allowing four earned runs to the San Francisco Giants on July 12th<\/sup>, he has not allowed a run in five outings and has struck out nine.\u00c2\u00a0 The Cubs have also called up Jeff Samardzija.\u00c2\u00a0 For whatever reason, like Joba Chamberlain last season, whenever this ex-Notre Dame wide receiver enters the game, everyone in Wrigley seems to receive an intravenous supply of Red Bull.\u00c2\u00a0 Between Samardzija and Marmol, the Cubs may have a better bullpen without Kerry Wood.<\/p>\n

By the way, with the inclusion of Samardzija to the Cubs\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Major League roster, the Wrigley media guy has the easiest slam dunk of a JumboTron montage ever.\u00c2\u00a0 Every time this kid enters the game, if Wrigley doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t play the scene from Rudy where Ned Beatty says, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153This is the most beautiful sight these two eyes have ever seen,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d and then play the Rudy music, the Cubs don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t deserve to make the playoffs.\u00c2\u00a0 A mid-eighth inning clip of Charles S. Dutton belting out, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153In this life, you don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t have to prove nothin\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 to nobody but yourself.\u00c2\u00a0 And after all you\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve gone through, if you haven\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t done that by now, it ain\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t gonna happen,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d would bring the house down.<\/p>\n

ODDS: 2-1<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong>Milwaukee<\/em><\/strong> Brewers<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Between Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, the Brewers have one of the best one-two pitching combinations in the league.\u00c2\u00a0 They went all-in with the Sabathia trade, and have shown dividends from the move for a while now.\u00c2\u00a0 However, this past series against the Cubs provides us with an interesting touchstone.\u00c2\u00a0 On August 1st<\/sup>, the Brewers find themselves five games out of first, having just been swept at home by their divisional rival.\u00c2\u00a0 The big test for this team occurs right now.\u00c2\u00a0 How will the Brewers respond to this setback?\u00c2\u00a0 Will they step up and take at least four of six from the Braves and Reds, or will they simply lay back and claim defeat?<\/p>\n

Look, Ryan Braun has put up MVP-type numbers and both Sheets and Sabathia could be in contention for the Cy Young, but if the Brewers do not respond here, their season could be over.\u00c2\u00a0 Players like Braun, Prince Fielder, and J.J. Hardy may just be one year too young to bounce back from a serious body blow like this.\u00c2\u00a0 It\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a possibility that both Fielder and Hardy could fall into devastating slumps for the next two weeks, and Ryan Braun will be forced to carry the team.\u00c2\u00a0 If the Cubs were able to just roll into Milwaukee like the Germans into Paris, what happens when they come back in late September?\u00c2\u00a0 Will those three games to end the season even mean anything?\u00c2\u00a0 Only time will tell.<\/p>\n

ODDS: 20-1<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong>St. Louis<\/em><\/strong> Cardinals<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Did anyone expect the Cardinals to be eleven games over .500 by the end of July?\u00c2\u00a0 Anyone?\u00c2\u00a0 Bueller?\u00c2\u00a0 Remember the sequel to Get Shorty, Be Cool?\u00c2\u00a0 Be Cool was one of those ensemble movies that packed in some serious heavy-hitters, such as John Travolta, Uma Thurman, Harvey Keitel, and Vince Vaughn.\u00c2\u00a0 But as I left the theater, I realized that The Rock, as a gay country singing bodyguard, and Cedric the Entertainer, as a throwback wearing mini-van driving rap tycoon, stole the show.\u00c2\u00a0 My immediate thoughts after viewing were, Where in the world did that come from?<\/em><\/p>\n

The same goes for the Cardinals.\u00c2\u00a0 Besides Pujols, what do the Cardinals have?\u00c2\u00a0 Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, and Todd Wellemeyer have thirty wins between them.\u00c2\u00a0 Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel have a combined 45 homers and 133 RBI.\u00c2\u00a0 Yadier Molina and Troy Glaus have been surprisingly productive.\u00c2\u00a0 As a result, the Cardinals are 61-50.\u00c2\u00a0 Where in the world did that come from?<\/p>\n

ODDS: 115-1<\/strong><\/p>\n

N.L. EAST<\/strong>:\u00c2\u00a0Phillies<\/em>, <\/em>Mets<\/em>,<\/em> Marlins<\/em><\/p>\n

New York<\/em><\/strong> Mets<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Heading towards the trade deadline, the Mets needed a bat in the outfield, a bat behind the plate, and at least one more arm in the bullpen.\u00c2\u00a0 Damaso Marte and Ivan Rodriguez went to the Yankees (I could not be happier about the end of the Kyle Farnsworth era in New York), Manny Ramirez went to the Dodgers, Ken Griffey Jr. ended up in Chicago, and Jason Bay found his way to the Red Sox.\u00c2\u00a0 This leaves the Mets with the same holes to plug as they head down the stretch.\u00c2\u00a0 On top of all that, besides the inclusion of Johan Santana, the core members of this team are the same players that took part in one of the biggest collapses in baseball history.\u00c2\u00a0 This year, instead of leading by seven games, they trail by one.\u00c2\u00a0 Does anyone else see a problem here?<\/p>\n

That being said, I think the Mets have enough to finish the job this year.\u00c2\u00a0 Two weeks ago, when Billy Wagner was not available to close and the Mets lost to the Phillies by giving up six runs in the ninth, Jerry Manuel had his team back on the field the next night ready to win.\u00c2\u00a0 The Mets came back to win the series in two tight, tense ballgames.\u00c2\u00a0 Last year, after receiving a blow to the body like the July 22nd<\/sup> loss to the Phillies, the Mets would have folded.\u00c2\u00a0 Randolph would have panicked, Minaya would have made some undesirable trade, and Wright, Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado would have lost confidence.<\/p>\n

Manuel brings something different to this Mets team.\u00c2\u00a0 Somewhere, in the mire of the Willie Randolph controversy and the constant threat of Queens\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s residents standing on a ledge, this team galvanized.\u00c2\u00a0 They came together and found a resiliency that I never expected to see from this group of players.\u00c2\u00a0 The Mets have amassed a 9-4 record against the Phillies.\u00c2\u00a0 When the dust clears in this division, I expect the Mets to be the last ones standing.<\/p>\n

ODDS: 4-1<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong> <\/strong>
\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Philadelphia<\/em><\/strong> Phillies<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Perhaps the best thing to come out of the past few seasons has been the growing rivalry between the Mets and Phillies.\u00c2\u00a0 These teams simply do not like each other.\u00c2\u00a0 Both teams have potent offenses, holes in their pitching staff, and gaping chasms in their bullpens.\u00c2\u00a0 The Mets play a flashy, self-publicizing style of baseball, where every positive occurrence gets punctuated by a complicated multi-step handshake.\u00c2\u00a0 The Phillies play a more reserved style, letting the accomplishments of Howard, Rollins, and Utley speak for themselves.\u00c2\u00a0 Most importantly, while New York possesses a run differential of +46, the Phillies almost double that total, outscoring their opponents by 77 runs.<\/p>\n

The Phillies\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 main problem resides in their pitching staff.\u00c2\u00a0 Beyond Cole Hamels, who despite the impressive numbers has been streaky, and Jamie Moyer, who remains incredibly old, there isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t much else.\u00c2\u00a0 Kyle Kendrick has a 4.59 ERA.\u00c2\u00a0 Brett Myers possesses an ERA over five.\u00c2\u00a0 Furthermore, as the pressure mounts down the stretch, would you ever rely on Brad Lidge to get a big out?\u00c2\u00a0 I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m giddy with anticipation over the prospect of Lidge facing David Wright with a one run lead and a man on second.\u00c2\u00a0 Will he experience a Ricky Bobby-like flashback of Albert Pujols?\u00c2\u00a0 Don\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t be surprised to see him sprint off the mound in his tightie-whiteys, shrieking that his clothes are on fire.<\/p>\n

ODDS: 8-1<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n


\n<\/strong>Florida<\/em><\/strong> Marlins<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Simply stated, the Marlins are the most exciting team in baseball.\u00c2\u00a0 They can\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t pitch (they rank 14th<\/sup> in the N.L. in ERA, 15th<\/sup> in quality starts), can\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t field (they lead the N.L. with 86 errors and a league-worst .979 fielding percentage), possess a run-differential of -21, and inexplicably are 1.5 games behind the Phillies.\u00c2\u00a0 Let me repeat that.\u00c2\u00a0 The Marlins have been outscored this season by 21 runs, and yet have won 53% of their games and could end up winning their division.\u00c2\u00a0 At the end of the day, the Marlins either win by bludgeoning their opponents to death or getting shut out.\u00c2\u00a0 Apparently, they bludgeon well.<\/p>\n

For this entire season, Florida has played beer league softball.\u00c2\u00a0 They refuse to consistently pick up the baseball, their pitchers lay the ball over the middle of the plate, but their hitters swing as hard as they can every time up.\u00c2\u00a0 Every time I see a Marlins highlight, I half expect to see catcher John Baker taking warm ups with a cigarette dangling from his lips and a half-empty tallboy of Miller High-Life perched in the dirt next to him.\u00c2\u00a0 I am eagerly awaiting the situation when a Marlins hitter gruesomely tears both hamstrings trying to beat a throw to first.\u00c2\u00a0 Then my analogy will be complete.<\/p>\n

As fun as it may be to watch this team, you can\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t win a division without pitching or defense.\u00c2\u00a0 However, if they hedged their bets and hired Jenny Finch and Artie Lange to finish out the season at pitcher and first base, I would watch every game.<\/p>\n

ODDS: 500-1<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Josh Deitch follows up with a look at the divisional races in the N.L. and sets odds for the division winners.\u00c2\u00a0 How much did the Manny Ramirez trade shake up the balance of power in the league?\u00c2\u00a0 Find out inside\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/53"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/600\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}