{"id":6699,"date":"2010-07-15T15:30:16","date_gmt":"2010-07-15T22:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.seamheads.com\/?p=6699"},"modified":"2010-07-15T15:30:16","modified_gmt":"2010-07-15T22:30:16","slug":"just-how-good-is-mariano-rivera","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2010\/07\/15\/just-how-good-is-mariano-rivera\/","title":{"rendered":"Just How Good is Mariano Rivera?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Mariano Rivera is the best reliever in baseball history.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 If I were to make such a claim, there would surely be some fans who would agree with me and many who would not.\u00c2\u00a0 And, of course, all would want to know on what basis I made such a claim.<\/p>\n

Bill James\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Win Shares system is the most comprehensive tool available to understand how good a season<\/strong> a player had.\u00c2\u00a0 It includes offensive and defensive contributions and adjusts for all relevant factors.\u00c2\u00a0 The CAWS Career Gauge (Career Assessment\/Win Shares) uses win shares to measure how good a career<\/strong> a player has had.\u00c2\u00a0 The CAWS Gauge is based on a player\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s core value (his ten best seasons) plus additional credit for his other seasons.\u00c2\u00a0 It is an objective tool which attempts to assess career value.\u00c2\u00a0 But in attempting to measure the career value of a relief pitcher, of course, we encounter some special difficulties.<\/p>\n

In trying to establish reasonable benchmarks for Hall of Fame numbers, I naturally came up against the question: Since a relief pitcher who has never been a starter will normally pitch many fewer innings than a starting pitcher, how are you going to determine whether a relief pitcher has HOF numbers?\u00c2\u00a0 Obviously, the same standards cannot apply for a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher (not to mention a position player).<\/p>\n

In wrestling with this question, I looked at the careers of all the great relief pitchers to try to establish a benchmark that would recognize the best \u00e2\u20ac\u201c but would not be \u00e2\u20ac\u0153too easy.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 And I believe that I have accomplished this task.<\/p>\n

Consider the following statement.\u00c2\u00a0 Through the 2009 season, there have only been five pitchers in the modern era (since 1920) who have achieved a CAWS score of 150 while pitching fewer than 1700 innings.<\/strong> Here are those pitchers.\u00c2\u00a0 (I have included Rollie Fingers because he was so close to 1700.)\u00c2\u00a0 IP is innings pitched, CWS is career win shares, CV is core value (the win shares for the ten best seasons) and CAWS is the CAWS score [CAWS = CV + .25(CWS \u00e2\u20ac\u201c CV)].<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nIP<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mariano Rivera<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n1090<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n227<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n175<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n188<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lee Smith <\/span><\/td>\n1289<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n198<\/span><\/td>\n152<\/span><\/td>\n164<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bruce Sutter <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1042<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n168<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n163<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n164<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dan Quisenberry <\/span><\/td>\n1043<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n157<\/span><\/td>\n155<\/span><\/td>\n156<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/strong><\/span>Rollie Fingers<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1701<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n188<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n144<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n155<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

So, the CAWS Gauge has established the 1700\/150 benchmark as the standard for \u00e2\u20ac\u0153pure\u00e2\u20ac\u009d relief pitchers to have HOF numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 And, as you can see, none of these pitchers comes anywhere close to what Mariano has achieved so far in his career \u00e2\u20ac\u201c even though Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers are both in the Hall of Fame. \u00c2\u00a0The Gauge suggests that these are the only pure relievers who have posted obvious HOF numbers during their careers \u00e2\u20ac\u201c and all should be in the Hall.<\/p>\n

Take a look at Lee Smith.\u00c2\u00a0 He is still on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 In 2010, he got 47% of the vote.\u00c2\u00a0 Hopefully, that means that within the next few years he may be inducted and claim his rightful place in Cooperstown.<\/p>\n

Please note that some great relievers are not included here such as Hoyt Wilhelm, Dennis Eckersley and Goose Gossage.\u00c2\u00a0 We must recognize that some relievers were starting pitchers for some part of their careers and cannot be judged by the same standard as a pure relief pitcher (those who were never starters).\u00c2\u00a0 Each of these three outstanding relievers (Wilhelm, Eckersley and Gossage) pitched many more than 1700 innings during their careers.\u00c2\u00a0 And so, the CAWS Gauge has established a different benchmark which shows that all three did indeed post Hall of Fame numbers during their careers.<\/p>\n

Consider the numbers for the following outstanding relief pitchers at the end of\u00c2\u00a0 2009.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nIP<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Billy Wagner
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		833<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n165<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n143<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n149<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Trevor Hoffman <\/span><\/em><\/td>\n1042<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n187<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n135<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n148<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As you can see, these two relievers are closing in on the CAWS benchmark of 150 but are not quite there yet.\u00c2\u00a0 Trevor Hoffman, of course, is the major league \u00e2\u20ac\u0153saves leader.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 It looks like each of them may reach the benchmark in 2010.<\/p>\n

Finally, in case you are wondering about some other pure relievers, here are the numbers for some of the best ever.\u00c2\u00a0 Note that none of them achieved the 150 CAWS benchmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nIP<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John Franco<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		1246<\/span><\/td>\n183<\/span><\/td>\n128<\/span><\/td>\n142<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mike Marshall<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		1387<\/span><\/td>\n146<\/span><\/td>\n139<\/span><\/td>\n141<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kent Tekulve<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		1436<\/span><\/td>\n159<\/span><\/td>\n135<\/span><\/td>\n141<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John Hiller<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		1242<\/span><\/td>\n146<\/span><\/td>\n136<\/span><\/td>\n139<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sparky Lyle<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		1390<\/span><\/td>\n161<\/span><\/td>\n132<\/span><\/td>\n139<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tom Henke<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		790<\/span><\/td>\n140<\/span><\/td>\n130<\/span><\/td>\n133<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Doug Jones<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		1121<\/span><\/td>\n146<\/span><\/td>\n128<\/span><\/td>\n133<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jeff Montgomery<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		869<\/span><\/td>\n134<\/span><\/td>\n127<\/span><\/td>\n129<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John Wetteland<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		765<\/span><\/td>\n127<\/span><\/td>\n125<\/span><\/td>\n126<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The CAWS Career Gauge attempts to tell us in a purely objective manner which players posted Hall of Fame numbers during their careers.\u00c2\u00a0 And looking at the numbers above, you can see why I feel very comfortable in suggesting that Mariano Rivera is the best \u00e2\u20ac\u0153pure\u00e2\u20ac\u009d reliever in baseball history.<\/p>\n

If anyone would like to get a free e-copy of Professor Hoban\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s 100-page monograph: <\/em>A HOF HANDBOOK: Who Belongs and Who Does Not<\/em><\/strong>,\u00c2\u00a0 just drop a note to mike_hoban@msn.com<\/a>. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Mariano Rivera is the best reliever in baseball history.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 If I were to make such a claim, there would surely be some fans who would agree with me and many who would not.\u00c2\u00a0 And, of course, all would want to know on what basis I made such a claim. Bill James\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Win Shares system is […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,19],"tags":[21225,8886,8885,6323,4626,4684,4682,6326,21230,8887,5105,8884,816,6324,3092,811,3030,6327,4663,3078],"class_list":["post-6699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-prof-hobans-hall-of-fame-blog","tag-baseball-history","tag-benchmark","tag-benchmarks","tag-career-assessment","tag-core-value","tag-cv","tag-cws","tag-gauge","tag-hall-of-fame","tag-ip","tag-mariano-rivera","tag-objective-tool","tag-position-player","tag-relevant-factors","tag-relief-pitcher","tag-relief-pitchers","tag-rollie-fingers","tag-score","tag-shares","tag-starting-pitcher"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t