{"id":7156,"date":"2010-08-02T12:41:45","date_gmt":"2010-08-02T19:41:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.seamheads.com\/?p=7156"},"modified":"2010-08-02T12:41:45","modified_gmt":"2010-08-02T19:41:45","slug":"just-how-good-were-barry-bonds-and-roger-clemens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2010\/08\/02\/just-how-good-were-barry-bonds-and-roger-clemens\/","title":{"rendered":"Just How Good were Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Here is the short answer.\u00c2\u00a0 According to the numbers alone, Barry Bonds had the #2 best career of any position player of the modern era (behind only Babe Ruth) and Roger Clemens is the greatest right-handed pitcher of the period (since 1920).\u00c2\u00a0 And yet neither of these great players may make it into the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n

Perhaps a fitting epitaph for the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153steroids era\u00e2\u20ac\u009d in baseball would be the following:<\/p>\n

Here lie the reputations of two of the greatest players<\/strong><\/p>\n

to ever play the game –<\/strong><\/p>\n

Destroyed by their own reckless pursuit<\/strong><\/p>\n

of perfection.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Because that is apparently what happened.\u00c2\u00a0 Each of these great players wanted to be the best and chose whatever means to get there.\u00c2\u00a0 But how good were they?<\/p>\n

Bill James\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 Win Shares system is the most comprehensive tool available to understand how good a season<\/strong> a player had.\u00c2\u00a0 It includes offensive and defensive contributions and adjusts for all relevant factors.\u00c2\u00a0 The CAWS Career Gauge (Career Assessment\/Win Shares) uses win shares to measure how good a career<\/strong> a player has had.\u00c2\u00a0 The CAWS Gauge is based on a player\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s core value (his ten best seasons) plus additional credit for his other seasons.\u00c2\u00a0 It is an objective tool which attempts to assess career value.\u00c2\u00a0 And the CAWS Gauge suggests that Bonds and Clemens were two of the greatest players to ever play the game.<\/p>\n

Barry Bonds<\/strong><\/p>\n

Barry Bonds, of course, holds the career record for home runs at 762.\u00c2\u00a0 And his seven MVP awards are just this side of unbelievable.\u00c2\u00a0 And so there can be no question that during his career he posted Hall of Fame numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 But that does not really answer the question of exactly how good he was.\u00c2\u00a0 Perhaps this will help.<\/p>\n

According to the CAWS Career Gauge, only nine position players in the modern era (since 1920) have posted a CAWS score of 400.\u00c2\u00a0 Here are those players.\u00c2\u00a0 CWS is career win shares, CV is core value (the win shares for the ten best seasons) and CAWS is the career score [CAWS = CV + .25(CWS \u00e2\u20ac\u201c CV)].<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nPlayer<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nPOS. <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1.<\/strong><\/td>\nBabe Ruth<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n <\/span>RF<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n756<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n460<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n534<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2.<\/td>\nBarry Bonds<\/span>
\n<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n		LF<\/span><\/td>\n707<\/span><\/td>\n427<\/span><\/td>\n497<\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3.<\/strong><\/td>\nWillie Mays <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCF<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n642<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n389<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n452<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4.<\/strong><\/td>\nMickey Mantle <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCF<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n565<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n399<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n441<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5.<\/strong><\/td>\nStan Musial <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nLF<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n604<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n378<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n435<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6.<\/strong><\/td>\nTed Williams <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nLF<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n555<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n394<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n434<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7.<\/strong><\/td>\nHank Aaron <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nRF<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n643<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n356<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n428<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8.<\/strong><\/td>\nRogers Hornsby <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n2B<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n502<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n381<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n411<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9.<\/strong><\/td>\nLou Gehrig <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n1B<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n489<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n384<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n410<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Of course, aside from possibly Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner and Tris Speaker from the deadball era, this is a list of the greatest position players to ever play the game.\u00c2\u00a0 Of course, all are in the Hall of Fame except Bonds.\u00c2\u00a0 It seems to me that seeing Barry Bonds\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 name among these true superstars of the game really brings home to the average fan exactly how good he was.\u00c2\u00a0 My own personal opinion is that Willie Mays was the greatest all-around player of all time.\u00c2\u00a0 And so when I see that Bonds\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 numbers place him ahead of Willie that really tells the story for me.<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

Look at Barry\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s CV (core value) of 427.\u00c2\u00a0 That means that for his ten best seasons Bonds averaged better than 42 win shares per season.\u00c2\u00a0 That is mind-boggling!\u00c2\u00a0 95% of players can only dream of a 40-win shares season.\u00c2\u00a0 But Barry averaged better than that for his top ten seasons.\u00c2\u00a0 Love him or hate him \u00e2\u20ac\u201c no one can deny that during his twenty-two major league seasons Barry Bonds put up the numbers.<\/p>\n

Roger Clemens<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the area of starting pitching, Roger Clemens\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 numbers are almost on a par with Barry Bonds\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 numbers for a position player.\u00c2\u00a0 Clemens pitched for twenty-four seasons, won 354 games and garnered an unbelievable seven Cy Young awards.\u00c2\u00a0 There can be no doubt in anyone\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s mind that he has the numbers for induction into the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 But exactly how good was he when compared to the other great starting pitchers of the era?<\/p>\n

According to the CAWS Career Gauge, Roger Clemens is the best right-handed starting pitcher of the modern era (since 1920).\u00c2\u00a0 Only twelve pitchers have achieved a CAWS score of 260 or better during this time frame.\u00c2\u00a0 Here are those pitchers.\u00c2\u00a0 CWS is career win shares, CV is core value (the win shares for the ten best seasons) and CAWS is the career score [CAWS = CV + .25(CWS \u00e2\u20ac\u201c CV)].<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nPlayer<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1.<\/strong><\/td>\nLefty Grove<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n391<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n301<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n324<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2.<\/td>\nRoger Clemens<\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n		432<\/em><\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n		260<\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n		303<\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3.<\/strong><\/td>\nWarren Spahn<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n412<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n259<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n297<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4.<\/strong><\/td>\nTom Seaver<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n388<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n255<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n288<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5.<\/td>\nGreg Maddux<\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n		398<\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n		246<\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n		284<\/span>
\n<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6.<\/strong><\/td>\nGaylord Perry<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n369<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n243<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n275<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7.<\/strong><\/td>\nBob Gibson<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n317<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n258<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n273<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8.<\/strong><\/td>\nSteve Carlton<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n366<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n240<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n272<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9.<\/strong><\/td>\nPhil Niekro<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n374<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n235<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n270<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10.<\/strong><\/td>\nRobin Roberts<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n339<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n246<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n269<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11.<\/strong><\/td>\nJim Palmer<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n312<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n252<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n267<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12.<\/strong><\/td>\nCarl Hubbell<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		305<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		248<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		262<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Of course, all of these pitchers are in the Hall of Fame with the exception of Clemens and Greg Maddux who are not yet eligible.\u00c2\u00a0 As an aside, this list also gives you some idea of how good a pitcher Greg Maddux really was \u00e2\u20ac\u201c ranking among the top five careers of the era.<\/p>\n

You will note that Clemens has more career win shares than any one on the list attesting to the fact that he was very good for a very long time.\u00c2\u00a0 And this ranking does indicate that Roger had the best career of all right-handed starting pitchers of the era \u00e2\u20ac\u201c beating out Tom Seaver for that honor.<\/p>\n

So, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens were not just very good players.\u00c2\u00a0 The numbers they posted during their careers establish them as true superstars whose credentials for the Hall of Fame would not be questioned were it not for the steroids issue.<\/p>\n

Therefore, the question really becomes: How will the members of the BBWAA who vote for induction into the Hall of Fame treat players who are suspected of steroids use? <\/strong><\/p>\n

So far, we have only the evidence of Mark McGwire to go by.\u00c2\u00a0 In his first year on the ballot in 2007, McGwire got 128 votes (less than 25%).\u00c2\u00a0 On his fourth year on the ballot in 2010, he got the same 128 votes.<\/p>\n

As far as I am concerned, these votes tell a clear tale.\u00c2\u00a0 The support for Mark McGwire is stagnant.\u00c2\u00a0 It now appears very clear to me that Big Mac will never be voted into the Hall by the BBWAA.<\/em> So, to me at least, the message from the writers has become crystal clear \u00e2\u20ac\u201c If we think you did steroids, you will not get into the Hall of Fame.<\/strong><\/p>\n

But will this message apply to other players?\u00c2\u00a0 I believe it will.\u00c2\u00a0 If the baseball writers will not elect Mark McGwire (former \u00e2\u20ac\u0153national hero\u00e2\u20ac\u009d) to the Hall of Fame because of his alleged steroids use, is there any reason to believe that they will elect any other player who is tarred with the same brush?\u00c2\u00a0 I do not believe so.\u00c2\u00a0 Why would they?<\/p>\n

Therefore, I feel confident in predicting that no player connected to the abuse of steroids in the mind of the writers will ever be elected to the Hall<\/strong> (unless the climate changes dramatically).\u00c2\u00a0 I am not saying that I believe that <\/strong>these players should not get into the Hall.\u00c2\u00a0 What I am saying is that based on the evidence that we have to date, I cannot imagine any reason why the writers will elect any of these players \u00e2\u20ac\u201c if they will not elect Mark McGwire.<\/p>\n

Therefore, given the present climate and despite how great their numbers are, I do not believe that either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens will ever be elected to the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

If anyone would like to get a free e-copy of Professor Hoban\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s 100-page monograph: <\/em>A HOF HANDBOOK: Who Belongs and Who Does Not<\/em><\/strong>,\u00c2\u00a0 just drop a note to mike_hoban@msn.com<\/a>. <\/em><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here is the short answer.\u00c2\u00a0 According to the numbers alone, Barry Bonds had the #2 best career of any position player of the modern era (behind only Babe Ruth) and Roger Clemens is the greatest right-handed pitcher of the period (since 1920).\u00c2\u00a0 And yet neither of these great players may make it into the Hall […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,77,19],"tags":[376,2019,6323,9502,4626,4684,9501,6326,21230,4375,1329,5382,8884,816,1177,6324,9503,2103,6325,3134],"class_list":["post-7156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general","category-hall-of-fame","category-prof-hobans-hall-of-fame-blog","tag-babe-ruth","tag-barry-bonds","tag-career-assessment","tag-career-record","tag-core-value","tag-cv","tag-fitting-epitaph","tag-gauge","tag-hall-of-fame","tag-handed-pitcher","tag-home-runs","tag-mvp-awards","tag-objective-tool","tag-position-player","tag-position-players","tag-relevant-factors","tag-reputations","tag-roger-clemens","tag-short-answer","tag-steroids"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t