{"id":9813,"date":"2010-12-01T16:45:52","date_gmt":"2010-12-01T23:45:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.seamheads.com\/?p=9813"},"modified":"2010-12-01T16:45:52","modified_gmt":"2010-12-01T23:45:52","slug":"the-2011-hof-ballot-%e2%80%93-how-many-real-hall-of-famers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/2010\/12\/01\/the-2011-hof-ballot-%e2%80%93-how-many-real-hall-of-famers\/","title":{"rendered":"The 2011 HOF Ballot \u00e2\u20ac\u201c How Many REAL Hall of Famers?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The BBWAA 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot contains the names of thirty-three players that the baseball writers may vote for if they feel they belong in the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 Of the thirty-three players, I view sixteen position players and four pitchers as \u00e2\u20ac\u0153serious candidates.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 They are mentioned below.<\/p>\n

As we all know, the writers will vote for the candidates based on many different reasons – some of which will be objective and some subjective.\u00c2\u00a0 But here is the question that I will address here:\u00c2\u00a0 Based only on the numbers that these players achieved during their seasons in the major leagues, how many of them belong in the Hall of Fame?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Please look carefully at this question.\u00c2\u00a0 I have NOT<\/strong> asked:\u00c2\u00a0 Who belongs in the HOF?<\/em> That question is open to many subjective answers.\u00c2\u00a0 What I have asked is how many of these players posted what could be considered obvious HOF numbers <\/strong>during their careers?<\/p>\n

The CAWS Career Gauge (Career Assessment\/Win Shares) is based on win shares.\u00c2\u00a0 It assesses a player\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s career contributions by first focusing on the player\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Core Value (his ten best seasons).\u00c2\u00a0 It then accounts for a player\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s longevity by awarding points for win shares earned outside of the player\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s ten best seasons.<\/p>\n

The Gauge suggests that nine<\/strong> of these players posted obvious HOF numbers <\/strong>during their careers.\u00c2\u00a0 Seven of these were position players and two were pitchers.\u00c2\u00a0 Of these nine players, two are on the ballot for the first time.\u00c2\u00a0 The position players are: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Roberto Alomar, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Barry Larkin and Alan Trammell. <\/strong>The pitchers are: Bert Blyleven and Lee Smith<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

At the end of the 2010 season, there were only one hundred forty (140) players <\/strong>since 1920 who had accumulated HOF numbers according to the CAWS Gauge.\u00c2\u00a0 That is not a big number.\u00c2\u00a0 So, to have<\/strong> nine of these players on the ballot at the same time is unusual.<\/strong> But, of course, that is because seven of these players have been on the ballot previously and have not been elected.\u00c2\u00a0 The BBWAA has been too busy electing players like Jim Rice and Andre Dawson (who do not have HOF numbers) <\/strong>rather than rewarding those who do.\u00c2\u00a0 Only two of the nine players with HOF numbers are on the ballot for the first time: Jeff Bagwell and Rafael Palmeiro.<\/p>\n

Please take note.\u00c2\u00a0 I am NOT<\/strong> saying that only nine<\/strong> of the players on the ballot deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 That would be a different statement.\u00c2\u00a0 Since many subjective factors are used by different people to assess HOF \u00e2\u20ac\u0153worthiness,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d there may be other players besides these nine who some may feel deserve induction into the Hall (for reasons other than their career numbers).<\/p>\n

What I AM<\/strong> saying is that these nine players <\/strong>deserve to be in the Hall of Fame if we look ONLY at what they did on the playing field.<\/p>\n

The Position Players with Hall of Fame Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the CAWS Gauge (based on win shares), there have been only 100 position players<\/strong> in the modern era (since 1920) who have posted obvious HOF numbers during their careers.\u00c2\u00a0 And these seven players are among those one hundred.\u00c2\u00a0 Here they are in alphabetical order.<\/p>\n

1. <\/strong>Roberto Alomar\u00c2\u00a0 – <\/strong>According to the <\/strong>CAWS Gauge, there are only four second basemen in the modern era who have put up better numbers than Roberto Alomar.\u00c2\u00a0 They are Rogers Hornsby, Joe Morgan, Craig Biggio and Charley Gehringer.\u00c2\u00a0 That is very select company.\u00c2\u00a0 All are in the HOF except for Biggio who is not yet eligible.\u00c2\u00a0 Roberto Alomar got 73.7% of the vote in 2010, his first year on the ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 He should be elected to the Hall on this his second year of eligibility.<\/p>\n

2. <\/strong>Jeff Bagwell\u00c2\u00a0 – <\/strong>Among first basemen in the modern era, Jeff Bagwell ranks as #7.\u00c2\u00a0 Those ahead of him are: Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Albert Pujols, Willie McCovey, Dick Allen and Eddie Murray.\u00c2\u00a0 That ranks him ahead of Johnny Mize and Harmon Killebrew \u00e2\u20ac\u201c to name just two other great first basemen.\u00c2\u00a0 When compared to all the position players, Bagwell is the #36 ranked player of the modern era.\u00c2\u00a0 He deserves to be elected to the Hall of fame in this his first year on the ballot.<\/p>\n

3. <\/strong>Barry Larkin\u00c2\u00a0 – <\/strong>According to <\/strong>the CAWS Gauge, through the 2010 season, there are only seven shortstops in the modern era who have achieved better numbers on the playing field than Barry Larkin.\u00c2\u00a0 They are Alex Rodriguez (yes, he has still played more games at short than at third), Arky Vaughan, Robin Yount, Cal Ripkin, Luke Appling, Derek Jeter and Joe Cronin.\u00c2\u00a0 Of course, all of these are in the Hall except for ARod and Jeter who are still active.\u00c2\u00a0 Barry Larkin got 51.6% of the votes in 2010, his first year of eligibility.\u00c2\u00a0 That means that he should be elected at some point.\u00c2\u00a0 Let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s hope that is the case.<\/p>\n

4. <\/strong>Mark McGwire\u00c2\u00a0 –<\/strong> There are only nine first basemen in the modern era who had better numbers on the playing field than Mark McGwire.\u00c2\u00a0 They are (in order) Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Frank Thomas, Willie McCovey, Dick Allen, Eddie Murray, Jeff Bagwell, Johnny Mize and Harmon Killebrew.\u00c2\u00a0 All of these who have been eligible have been elected to the HOF except Dick Allen.\u00c2\u00a0 Of course, McGwire suffers from the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153steroids stain.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 And, judging from how the voting has gone in his first few years of eligibility (never more than 26% of the vote), there is no reason to believe that Big Mac will ever be elected to the Hall.<\/p>\n

5. <\/strong>Rafael Palmeiro <\/strong>-\u00c2\u00a0 Palmeiro certainly has Hall of Fame numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 He played for twenty seasons in the majors and is just one of a handful of players who have both 3000 hits and 500 home runs during their careers.\u00c2\u00a0 Unfortunately, like Mark McGwire, he suffers from the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153steroids stain.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 And there is no logical reason to think that the writers will vote for his election if they will not vote for McGwire.\u00c2\u00a0 It looks like Rafael will never get into the Hall despite having the numbers.<\/p>\n

6. <\/strong>Tim Raines\u00c2\u00a0 – <\/strong>According to the CAWS Gauge, in the modern era, only eight left fielders have put together better numbers on the playing field than Tim Raines.\u00c2\u00a0 They are (in order) Barry Bonds, Stan Musial, Ted Williams, Pete Rose, Rickey Henderson, Carl Yastrzemski, Gary Sheffield and Manny Ramirez.\u00c2\u00a0 All of these players who have been eligible are in the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 During his career, Raines was never a \u00e2\u20ac\u0153big name player.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 In the 2010 election, he got 30.4% of the vote.\u00c2\u00a0 This did represent an increase over 2009, so that is positive.\u00c2\u00a0 But at this point, it is very uncertain whether he will ever be elected to his rightful place in the Hall.<\/p>\n

7. <\/strong>Alan Trammell\u00c2\u00a0 –<\/strong> In the modern era, there have been only fourteen shortstops who have put together HOF numbers on the playing field according to the CAWS Gauge.\u00c2\u00a0 We have mentioned eight of these above when discussing Barry Larkin.\u00c2\u00a0 The others are: Ernie Banks, PeeWee Reese, Lou Boudreau, Alan Trammell, Miguel Tejada and Ozzie Smith.\u00c2\u00a0 All of these other players who have been eligible are in the Hall.\u00c2\u00a0 Only Alan Trammell among this elite group has been eligible and has not been elected.\u00c2\u00a0 It is true that his credentials are not as strong as the six others on this list.\u00c2\u00a0 But he still has the numbers and deserves election.<\/p>\n

Here are the numbers for these seven players with Hall of Fame numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 The first number is career win shares, the second is the core value (win shares for the ten best seasons) and the third is the CAWS career score.\u00c2\u00a0 [CAWS = CV + .25(CWS \u00e2\u20ac\u201c CV)]<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jeff Bagwell
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		388<\/td>\n287<\/td>\n312<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tim Raines
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		390<\/td>\n275<\/td>\n304<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Roberto Alomar
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		375<\/td>\n278<\/td>\n302<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mark McGwire
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		342<\/td>\n283<\/td>\n298<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rafael Palmeiro<\/td>\n387<\/td>\n257<\/td>\n290<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Barry Larkin
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		347<\/td>\n258<\/td>\n280<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alan Trammell
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		318<\/td>\n238<\/td>\n258<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Of the other position players on the 2010 Ballot, none has HOF numbers. Here are the numbers for some of those players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dave Parker
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		327<\/td>\n248<\/td>\n268<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fred McGriff
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		326<\/td>\n240<\/td>\n262<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John Olerud
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		301<\/td>\n239<\/td>\n255<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Larry Walker
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		311<\/td>\n234<\/td>\n253<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Don Mattingly<\/td>\n263<\/td>\n241<\/td>\n247<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dale Murphy
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		294<\/td>\n228<\/td>\n245<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Edgar Martinez
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		305<\/td>\n222<\/td>\n243<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Harold Baines
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		307<\/td>\n196<\/td>\n224<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Juan Gonzalez
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		234<\/td>\n203<\/td>\n211<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As you can see, Dave Parker and Fred McGriff are the highest ranked position players on the ballot who do not have Hall of Fame numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 Check out the core values here.\u00c2\u00a0 It would be very unusual for a first baseman or an outfielder to post HOF numbers (a CAWS score of 280) without a CV of at least 250.\u00c2\u00a0 And you will note that none of these players reached that mark.<\/p>\n

The Pitchers with Hall of Fame Numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the CAWS Gauge, in the modern era, only 40 pitchers<\/strong> have accumulated HOF numbers on the playing field.\u00c2\u00a0 And two of those pitchers are on this ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 Here they are.<\/p>\n

1.<\/strong> Bert Blyleven <\/strong>-\u00c2\u00a0 According to the CAWS Gauge, Bert Blyleven is the #14 most effective starting pitcher of the modern era.\u00c2\u00a0 His numbers put him just behind Randy Johnson and Bob Feller and ahead of such Hall of Famers as Early Wynn, Juan Marichal, Don Drysdale and Nolan Ryan.\u00c2\u00a0 It is inconceivable to serious baseball analysts how he could be on the ballot for thirteen years and not yet be elected to the Hall.\u00c2\u00a0 However, there does seem to be good news.\u00c2\u00a0 In 2010, he got 74.2% of the vote.\u00c2\u00a0 So we can expect that he will be elected to the Hall in 2011.<\/p>\n

2.<\/strong> Lee Smith <\/strong>-\u00c2\u00a0 The CAWS Career Gauge suggests that there are only five \u00e2\u20ac\u0153true relief pitchers\u00e2\u20ac\u009d (maximum of 1500 innings pitched) who have obvious Hall of Fame numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 Here they are (in order): Mariano Rivera, Lee Smith, Bruce Sutter, Billy Wagner, and Dan Quisenberry.\u00c2\u00a0 Lee Smith is in very select company here.\u00c2\u00a0 Sutter is already in the Hall and Mariano and Wagner are still active.\u00c2\u00a0 (Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm and Goose Gossage also have HOF numbers but do not fit into this category of pitchers.)\u00c2\u00a0 In 2010, Smith got 47.3% of the votes in his eighth year on the ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 He is creeping up slowly.\u00c2\u00a0 Let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s hope that the voters see the light soon and elect him to the Hall of Fame where he belongs.<\/p>\n

None of the other pitchers on the ballot has HOF numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 Kevin Brown is the highest ranking according to the CAWS Gauge and Jack Morris appears to be the only other serious candidate.\u00c2\u00a0 But the CAWS score of each of these two players falls well short of the 235 benchmark for starting pitchers.\u00c2\u00a0 By contrast, Bert Blyleven has a CAWS score of 248.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bert Blyleven
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		339<\/td>\n218<\/td>\n248<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kevin Brown
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		241<\/td>\n193<\/td>\n205<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Jack Morris
\n<\/strong><\/td>\n		225<\/td>\n172<\/td>\n185<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Even though neither has HOF numbers, notice how much better Kevin Brown looks when compared to Jack Morris.\u00c2\u00a0 In 2010, Jack Morris got 52.3% of the votes in his eleventh year on the ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 How is it possible that a pitcher who is not even remotely close to HOF numbers could get that many votes?\u00c2\u00a0 Just another example of voters not doing their homework (a la Jim Rice) \u00e2\u20ac\u201c voting with their hearts instead of with their heads.<\/p>\n

John Franco was a relief pitcher and a good one.\u00c2\u00a0 As such, he would have to reach the CAWS benchmark of 150 (in fewer than 1500 innings) to have obvious HOF numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 He fell just short of that.\u00c2\u00a0 Only five pitchers have ever done this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Player<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCV<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\nCAWS<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mariano Rivera<\/span><\/em><\/td>\n241<\/em><\/td>\n175<\/em><\/td>\n192<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lee Smith <\/span><\/td>\n198<\/td>\n152<\/td>\n164<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bruce Sutter <\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n168<\/strong><\/td>\n163<\/strong><\/td>\n164<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Billy Wagner <\/span><\/em><\/td>\n182<\/em><\/td>\n151<\/em><\/td>\n159<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Dan Quisenberry <\/span><\/td>\n157<\/td>\n155<\/td>\n156<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
John Franco
\n<\/strong><\/span><\/td>\n		183<\/td>\n128<\/td>\n142<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

In summary, Bert Blyleven<\/strong> and Roberto Alomar<\/strong> should be elected to the Hall in 2011 based on their 2010 ballot results (both got better than 70% in 2010).\u00c2\u00a0 And both of these players deserve a spot in Cooperstown.<\/p>\n

I also feel that Jeff Bagwell <\/strong>should be elected in his first time on the ballot.\u00c2\u00a0 But who knows how the writers will vote.\u00c2\u00a0 As we all know, it is not always the deserving players who get elected to the Hall of Fame.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The BBWAA 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot contains the names of thirty-three players that the baseball writers may vote for if they feel they belong in the Hall of Fame.\u00c2\u00a0 Of the thirty-three players, I view sixteen position players and four pitchers as \u00e2\u20ac\u0153serious candidates.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d\u00c2\u00a0 They are mentioned below. As we all know, the writers […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,4235],"tags":[6329,2003,452,2482,6323,12287,4626,21230,12285,4575,7664,1199,12284,46,432,1177,3126,2000,12286,7835],"class_list":["post-9813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-prof-hobans-hall-of-fame-blog","category-top-stories","tag-alan-trammell","tag-barry-larkin","tag-baseball-writers","tag-bert-blyleven","tag-career-assessment","tag-career-contributions","tag-core-value","tag-hall-of-fame","tag-hof-ballot","tag-jeff-bagwell","tag-lee-smith","tag-longevity","tag-many-different-reasons","tag-mark-mcgwire","tag-pitchers","tag-position-players","tag-rafael-palmeiro","tag-roberto-alomar","tag-subjective-answers","tag-tim-raines"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/18"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9813"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9813\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seamheads.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}