I’ve noticed a lot of talk recently about the Orioles and how they continue to outplay their Run Differential. As of today, they have a record of 60-51 with a run differential of -47, and have outplayed their pythagorean record by almost 10 games! I wanted to take a look at why, so I made this graph….
The red line shows how many games the average MLB team would have with that run difference. The Orioles are just about in line with the MLB average in terms of their losses, EXCEPT for their 1-run losses. While the average team would have 16 1-run losses, the O’s have just 6.
Looking at their victories, they have far more 1 and 2 run wins than average, but are slightly below average in victories of 3 runs or more (except for 6).
It also doesn’t help that they have just one victory of 9 or more runs, while they have lost by that deficit a total of 5 times.
Even with a superb bullpen, is this sustainable?
A. Mazing. Brilliant way to look at stuff, Dan!
Thanks. I’d love to be able to add this type of graph to each team’s page, but I currently don’t have game by game data for each team. In fact, there are a few things I’d add if I had this data. I’ve got to work on making that happen.
Means they have a great manager and coaching staff IMO .. My Detroit Tigers have the opposite situation .. and I am very bummed out about being 5 games over 500 and leading the division by a half game .. Never been madder about it .. And the Orioles just snatched victory from defeat in a 4 run 9th inning today to send me over the edge 😉 Leyland is worst than useless…..