SHL Expansion Three: All or Nothing

With only 24 games left in the regular season, three teams are within four games of first place, but only one will make the playoffs, while the other two will spend the offseason playing virtual golf.

D’Rocks (and so does the O): From a record standpoint it would be difficult to find a squad more consistently average than the Arizona/Colorado D’Rocks.  They’ve gone 12-11, 13-11, 13-11, 12-14, 12-12, in the last five months and are 5-4 so far in September.  But that rate of “success” has them in first place at 67-63, clinging to a two-game lead over the stumbling Toronto Blue Jays.  From an individual standpoint, however, you’d also be hard-pressed to find more impressive numbers than the ones the D’Rocks players are putting on the backs of their virtual bubble gum cards.

They’re only in the middle of the pack in batting at .274, but they’re first in slugging (.469), home runs (193), and extra-base hits (466), second in OPS (.806), and third in runs (733, 5.6/game).  The D’Rocks lineup boasts five hitters with OPSs over .900, led by Luis Gonzalez, who is hitting .332 with 23 homers and 64 RBIs and sports a .994 OPS.  Todd Helton is batting .350 with 17 homers and 84 RBIs and is in the thick of the batting race.  Troy Glaus is providing most of the team’s power with 39 homers and 102 RBIs; Larry Walker leads the team in runs with 107 and is batting .321 with 24 homers and 93 RBIs; Steve Finley is batting .321 with 21 homers and 70 ribbies, and is 25-for-29 in stolen base attempts, and Matt Holliday is providing plenty of pop in a platoon role, batting .322 with nine homers and 29 RBIs in only 146 at-bats.

Their pitching isn’t much to look at, ranking dead last in home runs allowed (196) and bullpen ERA (5.94), and 22nd in team ERA at 4.92, but they have a few hurlers who are among the league’s best, including Randy Johnson at 18-8 with a 3.59 ERA and 233 strikeouts, and Curt Schilling, who ranks fifth in the SHL in strikeouts with 207.  Closer Jose Valverde has blown six saves and boasts an ERA of 4.74, but take away his one horrible outing on August 5 and he’s been pretty good over the last month and a half.

The D’Rocks appear to be hitting their stride at the right time.  They’re 8-5 since August 27, including three convincing wins over Seattle earlier in the month, in which they outscored the M’s 32-7 before losing the fourth game of the series, 4-1.  One of their most impressive victories of the season came on September 4 when they thrashed the Mariners by a score of 17-1.  “King Felix” Hernandez lasted only two innings after surrendering seven runs, four of which came on a Gonzalez grand slam.  Arthur Rhodes replaced Hernandez and promptly surrendered six more runs in only 2/3 of an inning, the big blow coming off the bat of Glaus, who launched a 424-foot blast to left-center that plated three.  By the time the third inning came to a close, the D’Rocks sported a 13-0 lead.  They added four more in the eighth just for good measure, thanks in part to an Ellis Burks three-run shot down the left field line.  Meanwhile Johnson allowed only four hits in eight innings and struck out nine.

Going 8-5 over their last 13 games isn’t earth-shattering by any means, but when you consider that the Jays are 3-10 and the Mariners are 4-9 over the same period, 8-5 looks pretty damn good.  If the D’Rocks can keep their momentum going, they’ll have a chance to put the Jays away when they meet for a four-game set in Toronto in nine days.

Blue Jays: While the D’Rocks are surging, the Jays have suddenly floundered, losing eight of their last nine games, and 13 of their last 16, dating back to August 22.  Some of their losses have been tough to swallow—they lost 6-5 to the Rangers on August 23 in 13 innings, despite putting men in scoring position in four of the last six innings; they lost 1-0 to the Astros in 10 innings after Nolan Ryan and Billy Wagner combined to throw a two-hit shutout; and they blew a 9-3 fifth inning lead to the last-place Marlins/Rays and lost 13-9 after allowing nine runs over the last two innings.  Otherwise their losses have been legit; they’ve been outscored 87-39 in those 13 defeats and have held opponents to four runs or less only twice, while managing to score more than four runs themselves only three times.

The good news is they just thrashed the Royals, 17-3, blasting out four doubles and two homers among their 17 hits, and they have six games coming up against teams with a combined .431 winning percentage before hosting the D’Rocks for a crucial four-game series that could make or break their season.

The Jays have some bright spots amid the dark cloud hanging over them, including Devon White who continues to smoke the ball at an impressive rate.  White is hitting .389/.436/.639 in September with 10 runs in nine games, and is hitting .341 and slugging .570 since being called up from the minors on May 17.  Roberto Alomar is hitting .394 with two homers and six RBIs this month, and catcher Ernie Whitt is hitting .323/.400/.516.  On the mound, the only production has come from the bullpen triumverate of B.J. Ryan, John Cerutti, and Duane Ward, who have combined for a 0.69 ERA in nine appearances.

Now for the bad.  The rest of the pitching staff has one win and a 8.44 ERA in 64 innings, and David Wells owns the team’s only quality start.  At the plate, the five batters not mentioned above are hitting .205, including shortstop Tony Fernandez, who’s hitting .129 in September.  If the Jays don’t take advantage of their schedule strength (or lack thereof) over the next six games, they may dig themselves a hole too deep to crawl out of by the time the D’Rocks hit town.

Mariners: After going 15-9 in August and pulling themselves within striking distance of first place, the Mariners have gone only 2-7 so far in September, and lost three key games to the D’Rocks that kept them from possibly jumping into the lead (or at least second place).  They salvaged their dignity with a 4-1 win over their division rivals, thanks to a brilliant performance by Freddy Garcia, who tossed eight innings of three-hit ball, but have lost three of their last four, including an 11-3 drubbing at the hands of the Angels.

The blame for the team’s poor performance belongs to both pitchers and hitters alike.  Among the regulars, only Ichiro Suzuki (.389/.405/.417) and Ken Griffey Jr. (.300/.400/.500) are producing.  The rest of the lineup has been putrid, especially slugger Ken Phelps, who went from the penthouse to the outhouse in the time it takes one of his screaming liners to reach the seats.  After belting 20 homers in 157 at-bats from July 1-August 31, Phelps has only one long ball in his last 11 games, and is batting .194 and slugging .290 in September.

But Phelps isn’t the only batter struggling for the Mariners.  Edgar Martinez is batting only .229 and has one RBI in his last 10 games; Dan Wilson is batting .235 with 11 strikeouts in 34 at-bats; Alex Rodriguez is batting .250 with three RBIs, and Raul Ibanez is hitting .250/.270/.361 this month.

With few exceptions, the pitching staff has been just as bad.  Garcia is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA and has lopped a full run off his ERA since July 18; J.J. Putz has a 1.59 ERA in his last four appearances and had nine straight outings without allowing a run before surrendering a solo homer to Angels first baseman Jason Thompson in his last appearance; Erik Hanson is 0-1, but boasts a solid 3.38 ERA in his two September starts.

The rest of the staff has been godawful, though.  Randy Johnson, Floyd Bannister, and Felix Hernandez are a combined 1-5 with a 9.79 ERA, and Hernandez hasn’t made it out of the fourth inning in either of his last two starts.  Meanwhile, except for Putz, who’s trying like hell to get his closer job back, the bullpen has been almost as bad, combining for a 9.15 ERA in 19 2/3 innings.  Norm Charlton has been especially ineffective, losing twice and allowing eight runs in three innings, before earning his 10th save in a 4-3 win over Baltimore on September 8.

The rest of Seattle’s schedule will be a rollercoaster and they’ll need to win the games they’re supposed to win, while holding on for dear life through the end of the month, if they’re going to catch the Jays and D’Rocks.  Their next 10 games are against opponents with a .413 winning percentage, but the eight games after that are against four of the best teams in the SHL—the Twins, Pirates, Red Sox, and Cubs, who have a combined winning percentage of .594.  Their last six games are against the Cincinnati Reds and Blue Jays, against whom they’ll finish the season with a four-game set in Toronto.

Marlins/Rays: If this was a league with a future beyond one season, the Marlins/Rays could take comfort in the fact that they’d have the number one pick in next year’s draft.  At 43-87, they are by far the worst team in the SHL.  Unfortunately, this is a one-and-done experience, so there’s no future star on the horizon.  The Sea-Dwellers have a few things going for them—they’re eighth in the league in extra-base hits and 11th in stolen bases, and their pitchers have fanned 950 batters, good for fourth best in the loop.  But they also have a lot of things wrong with them, ranking last in ERA, Starters’ ERA, runs allowed, and opponents’ batting average, and their hitters have fanned almost 1,000 times, whiffing almost eight times a game.

To underscore how bad Florida/Tampa Bay’s pitchers have been, James Shields leads the rotation with a 5.24 ERA (Scott Kazmir is at 4.35, but doesn’t have enough innings to qualify).  Shields is only 3-13 with eight quality starts in 22 trips to the hill, and owns perhaps one of the oddest stats of the season—against the powerful Yankees lineup which leads the SHL in runs scored, Shields is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA; against the rest of the league, he’s 1-13 with a 5.41 ERA.

The rest of the rotation is even worse.  Among starters with at least 30 starts, there are five in the SHL with ERAs over 6.00, and the Marlins/Rays have two of them—Josh Beckett (4-19, 6.05) and A.J. Burnett (8-16, 6.27).  The bullpen isn’t helping matters either, posting a 4.90 ERA and blowing 14 saves in 50 opportunities.

The Marlins/Rays boast a slew of hot hitters this month, including Aubrey Huff, who is hitting .486 with four homers and 15 RBIs in nine games, and Gary Sheffield, who’s batting .389 with two homers and nine ribbies.  Carl Crawford is hitting .341 with 11 runs and four steals in four attempts; Charles Johnson is hitting .333 with two homers and eight RBIs; and Jeff Conine is hitting .316.  Unfortunately it’s a case of too little, too late for the Floridians.