Rating the 2010 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame. This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled for January 6, 2010.

Many systems exist for evaluating player performance. One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching. James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, future standards may be different. Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not”.

The 2010 class of Hall of Fame candidates is a strong one. It consists of 11 holdovers and 15 players eligible for the first time. Seven holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Tim Raines with 390, Mark McGwire with 342, Andre Dawson, 340, Bert Blyleven, 339, Dave Parker, 327, Alan Trammell 318 and Harold Baines with 307. Four newcomers also have over 300 Win Shares, Roberto Alomar 375, Barry Larkin 347, Fred McGriff 326 and Edgar Martinez 305.

In 2009, Rickey Henderson was elected with 94.8% of the votes in his first appearance on the ballot and Jim Rice was elected with 76.4% of the vote. Tommy John (31.7%) was unsuccessful in his last (15th) year and is not on the 2010 ballot. No newcomers, other than Henderson, received enough votes to remain on the ballot.

None of the holdovers experienced a significant increase in votes in 2009. The two holdovers with the most votes, Andre Dawson (up 3 votes) and Bert Blyleven (down 2 votes) remained virtually the same. Blyleven’s last year on the ballot is 2012 so he needs to start moving up if he is going to make it.

Tim Raines and Mark McGwire both lost votes and received less than 25% of the total. McGwire is a special case. He has the numbers to be elected but remains tainted with the steroid cloud. Voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving McGwire a pass. He lost ground in 2009, receiving only 21.9% of the vote so it is likely to be a slow process.

Raines would appear to have the credentials for election but also lost ground in 2009 receiving only 22.6% of the vote. He should begin gaining but has a long way to go. Several newcomers on the 2010 ballot should receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.

Following is a list of Win Shares for the 26 players on the ballot. Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold. Voting results for 2007, 2008 and 2009 are shown for the holdovers.

Player	Win Shares	2007 Votes	2007 %	2008 Votes	2008 %	2009 Votes	2009 %
Tim Raines	390			132	24.3	122	22.6
Roberto Alomar	375
Barry Larkin	347
Mark McGwire	342	128	23.5	128	23.6	118	21.9
Andre Dawson	340	309	56.7	358	65.9	361	67.0
Bert Blyleven	339	260	47.7	336	61.9	338	62.7
Dave Parker	327	62	11.4	82	15.1	81	15.0
Fred McGriff	326
Alan Trammell	318	73	13.4	99	18.2	94	17.4
Harold Baines	307	29	5.3	28	5.2	32	5.9
Edgar Martinez	305
Dale Murphy	294	50	9.2	75	13.8	62	11.5
Robin Ventura	272
Don Mattingly	263	54	9.9	86	15.8	64	11.9
Ellis Burks	260
Andres Galarraga	251
Jack Morris	225	202	37.1	233	42.9	237	44.0
Ray Lankford	223
Todd Zeile	221
Lee Smith	198	234	45.0	217	39.8	235	43.3
Kevin Appier	189
Eric Karros	183
David Segui	130
Pat Hentgen	126
Shane Reynolds	94
Mike Jackson	92

The last 15 players elected by the Baseball Writers have averaged 353 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by only Raines and Alomar on the ballot this year.

Player	Year	Win Shares
Dave Winfield	2001	415
Kirby Puckett	2001	281
Ozzie Smith	2002	325
Gary Carter	2003	337
Eddie Murray	2003	437
Paul Molitor	2004	414
Dennis Eckersley	2004	301
Wade Boggs	2005	394
Ryne Sandberg	2005	346
Bruce Sutter	2006	168
Cal Ripken Jr.	2007	427
Tony Gwynn	2007	398
Goose Gossage	2008	223
Rickey Henderson	2009	535
Jim Rice	2009	282
Average		353

Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments. A measure of the quality of a player’s offensive performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) with the league average during his career. An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player. A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career.

Following is a rank order of OPS+ and ERA+ for the 26 candidates on the 2010 ballot:

Batters	OPS+		Pitchers	ERA+
Mark McGwire	162		Lee Smith	131
Edgar Martinez	147		Mike Jackson	125
Fred McGriff	134		Kevin Appier	121
Don Mattingly	127		Bert Blyleven	118
Ellis Burks	126		Pat Hentgen	108
Tim Raines	123		Jack Morris	105
Ray Lankford	122		Shane Reynolds	103
Dale Murphy	121
Dave Parker	121
Harold Baines	120
Andre Dawson	119
Andres Galarraga	118
Roberto Alomar	116
Barry Larkin	116
Robin Ventura	114
Alan Trammell	110
Diego Segui	110
Eric Karros	107
Todd Zeile	103

The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Raines, Dawson and Blyleven while OPS+ rewards strong offensive players who had shorter, more dominant careers like Martinez, Mattingly and Burks. ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.

Conclusions:

1. Roberto Alomar and Barry Larkin will be elected in 2010.

2. None of the holdovers will be elected in 2010 although Dawson and Blyleven should pick up a few votes.

3 Mark McGwire will not come close but should gain some ground and could get elected in the future. He is the only eligible player with over 500 home runs not in the Hall.

4. Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff and Andres Galarraga should receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.

5. There will not be a groundswell of support for Todd Zeile and Mike Jackson.

If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Alomar, Larkin, Raines, Blyleven, McGwire and Trammell.