Is the Nationals Pitching Really the Best in the NL and Can It Carry Them to the World Series?

With the playoffs just one week off, it is time to trot out those post season axioms that truthfully only work in retrospect. A month from now in all sagacity we will be able to say how clear it was that the experience of the Tigers and Cardinals would play up. Or maybe it will be how important the momentum of the Angels and Nationals was going into the post-season. The teams that are hot do tend to continue their level of play, but the first ironclad rule about October baseball: “Pitching wins championships,” is the one that bears the closest examination.

For the record, however, the Washington Nationals are as hot as anyone in the National League. They went 19-10 in August (.655) and so far in September are 15-6 (.714). Although the Cardinals in the month of September have played at roughly the same pace: 15-7 (.688) they have only warmed up against other NL Central foes, going only 16-13 (.552) in August. Simlarly LA was lackluster in August, winning only 15 against 13 losses and in September are 13-8 (.618). The Division winners have all been playing well, so it seems reasonable to look beyond that variable for further clarification.

So how good is the Nationals pitching? Nate Schierholtz, who played for the San Francisco Giants’ Championship teams led by Cain, Lincecum, and Bumgardner, assessed the Nationals pitching staff as “the best he has seen,” but he is being paid by the Nationals currently. Still he has reasonable knowledge of the rotations of the two teams in question.

The 2010 Giants had one of the more imposing pitching rotations in recent National League history. Cain, Lincecum and Sanchez led a staff that topped the NL in ERA with a 3.36 mark and they shut down a very potent Texas Ranger offense in the World Series to win in five games. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgardner both threw shut outs against the Rangers in the Series, cruising through a lineup that included Josh Hamilton in his MVP season, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young and Ian Kinsler.

The strength of the Washington Nationals is not so much in one or two ace starters as in their rotation from top to bottom. Their team ERA of 3.03 leads the National League and few teams over the years have been able to claim a five-man rotation with three starters whose ERAs were below 3.00. The Philadelphia Phillies had a 3.02 mark in 2009 with Halladay 2.35, Lee 2.40, and Hamels 2.79, but behind them the rotation was less certain than what the Nationals have sent out consistently every five days all season long.

Washington’s best starters have been Doug Fister (2.55), Jordan Zimmermann (2.78) and Tanner Roark (2.85). The rest of the rotation is ace Stephen Strasburg (3.23) and Gio Gonzalez (3.74). Strasburg is on pace to start 35 games and throw more than 200 innings–both career highs for the pitcher who failed to make an appearance in the 2012 NLDS. But during the Nationals two-month hot streak, Strasburg has been as dominant as any of the Nationals pitchers with a 2.89 ERA over 13 starts. Gio Gonzalez has also begun to round into the form that helped him win 21 games in 2012.

And that leaves the Nationals with a conundrum that no other playoff bound team will likely face: namely, moving one of their best starters to the bullpen. The consensus is that it will be Tanner Roark. As good as he has been over 30 starts this season, Roark has experience pitching effectively out of the bullpen. Gonzalez started two games for the Nationals in 2012 and that track record along with Roark’s strength out of the pen could make the Nationals pitching even better during the post season than it has been during the year.

There is no other National League team heading for the playoffs that can do better than Strasburg, Fister and Zimmermann at the top of the rotation. If Michael Wacha’s health were not a nagging question, the Cardinals would have very similar depth for their starters. But the condition of Wacha’s shoulder renders him uncertain for the post-season. Kershaw and Greinke may be the best twosome in the Majors, but the rest of the Dodger rotation is one of the weakest links on the team.

Behind the starting rotation, Washington has the best bullpen in the NL according to traditional metrics like ERA. Their 2.91 mark is better than either the Giants (3.02) or Pirates (3.23) among likely post season teams. As questionable as the back end of the Dodger rotation may be, the Cardinals bullpen has been depleted by injuries during the season and the result has been a 3.63 mark that ranks them 15th among all MLB teams.

By adding Tanner Roark to the Washington bullpen, the questions about Raphael Soriano’s struggles in the second half can pretty much be obviated. Roark came up in 2013 as a reliever and his 1.19 ERA in 22 innings as a reliever could add valuable depth to Washington’s pen in the post-season. Closing out games with Roark, Matt Thornton, Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen would leave few openings for the opposition.

As is always the case, luck and intangibles will determine who advances out of the National League to the World Series. For intangibles, however, the motivation of Stephen Strasburg to prove himself has to be among the ones to think about. Having been denied the chance to pitch in 2012, Straz seems determined to prove what a huge mistake was made in shutting him down two seasons ago.

No team has gotten into Strasburg’s head more than the Atlanta Braves over the past few years. On August 8, when Atlanta was still leading the NL East, Freddie Freeman and company touched up Strasburg for four home runs over a scant five innings. He lost that game, but has had two recent starts against the Braves that are more emblematic of his final two months. He won only one of the games, a seven inning shutout performance September 15th, but would have won the earlier game had closer Raphael Soriano not melted down. He leads both Cueto and Kershaw in strikeouts going into the last week of the season, but it is the command he has shown over his curve and change-up in recent weeks that will make him more than just a pitcher who strikes out double-digit batters each game. If the Nationals are to succeed in the post season, he will need to do better that the 23 home runs he has allowed in 2014 and he has given up only one in four September starts.

In handicapping the NL teams for the playoffs, much will be made of run differential, which heavily favors the Nationals. The Dodgers have the best offense, scoring 4.36 runs per game compared to 4.25 for Washington, but the differential for the Nats is +.83 runs per game, compared to +.55 for Los Angeles. St Louis has a meager +.08 mark.

The numbers do not take the mound in the post-season, nor do they grab a bat. When the 2012 Nationals were an out away from defeating St. Louis, they could not find a way to beat the more experienced Cardinals. How much Washington learned from 2012 will be the first test for their more veteran squad. But the most important factor going forward may be having Strasburg and Fister in the rotation in October 2014. They head a very tough pitching staff that is pitching as well as they have at any point in the season.

By this very systematic multi-variate analysis the Cardinals and Nationals should once again be playing for the 2014 NL Championship. The Nats have it on pitching; the Cards are hot and can swing the bats. It all starts in a week, and there are more signs every day in DC shop windows that say, “Go Nats!!”