Fear Not Detroit, Not All History Stacked Against Tigers

“The sky is falling.” – Chicken Little

If Chicken Little were a fan of major league baseball in 2008, there’s a good chance the frightened fowl would be a fan of the Detroit Tigers.  Even if Tigers’ fans wanted to, there’s no escaping the ominous 0-7 start of the team many penciled in as a favorite to make the postseason.  Since dropping their seventh straight game to open the season, every mention of the Tigers was partnered with the historical fact that no team has ever started the season 0-7 and made the postseason.  Poor Chicken Little didn’t panic until that loss thanks to the ’74 Pirates and ’95 Reds who both started 0-6 but bucked the odds and made it to the postseason.

While no one envies the hole the Tigers have dug for themselves nor has it helped ease preseason concerns about their pitching, recent history contradicts the concerns many have when faced with their 0-7 start.

Before tackling history, the landscape of the early American League has provided a number of surprises.  Not only have the Tigers limped out of the gate, the Indians, Mariners, Yankees and Red Sox have also stumbled out of the gate and have losing records.  In addition, the Orioles are 6-1.  Yes, the same Orioles who were listed by odds makers as a 100-to-1 shot to win the American League have the best record in baseball.  While their off to a great start, many still aren’t betting on a team that hasn’t made a postseason appearance since 1997.  Then there’s the team that leads the Central, the Kansas City Royals.  The Royals are 6-2 but no one expects to see them come October since they haven’t seen the postseason in 23 years and haven’t had a winning record since 1992.  There is a long season ahead.

While one tidbit of historical data tells us to prepare for a postseason without the Tigers, there are a few things recent history shows that say the demise of the Tigers is very premature.  Taking a look at the 2000-2007 list of teams that have made it to the postseason, there is historical precedent that says it would be silly to count out the Tigers just yet.  Of the 64 teams that have made it to the postseason over the last eight seasons, 22 teams have made it to the postseason while enduring a losing streak of at least seven games or have, at some point during the season, fallen at least seven games below .500.  Four of the last eight World Series winners have endured one or both of these pitfalls.  Tigers’ fans are all too familiar with one of those teams.  Despite enduring two eight-game losing streaks, the St. Louis Cardinals bested the Tigers in the ’06 World Series.  Sure, none of them opened the season 0-7 but the ’01 Athletics lost 7 games in a row from April 8-15 and were 10 games below .500 after May 1 but finished 102-60, a whopping 42 games above .500 on their way to the playoffs.

What history shows us is that most teams face adversity similar to the Tigers on their way to the postseason.  The Tigers are loaded with players with years of major league experience so they’ve been there before.  Manager Jim Leyland hasn’t forgotten how to manage just because his team got off to a slow start.  Someone stop Chicken Little as she runs through the streets of Detroit screaming “the sky is falling” and tell her it’s just an acorn.

Teams Who Have Endured Losing Streaks Of 7 Or More And Made The Postseason (’00-’07)

2007
Colorado Rockies – Lost 8 games from June 22-29 (Lost World Series)
New York Yankees – Lost 7 games from April 20-27 (Lost ALDS)

2006
St. Louis Cardinals – Lost 8 games twice from June 20-27 & July 27-August 4 (Won World Series)
Oakland Athletics – Lost 7 games from May 20-26 (Lost ALCS)
Los Angeles Dodgers – Lost 8 games from July 19-26 (Lost NLDS)

2005
Chicago White Sox – Lost 7 games from August 12-20 (Won World Series)
Houston Astros – Lost 7 games from May 18-24 (Lost World Series)
San Diego Padres – Lost 8 games from July 17-26 (Lost NLDS)

2004
Los Angeles Dodgers – Lost 8 games from May 13-21 (Lost NLDS)

2003
Minnesota Twins – Lost 8 games from July 5-13 (Lost ALDS)

2002
St. Louis Cardinals – Lost 7 games from July 31-August 7 (Lost NLCS)

2001
Houston Astros – Lost 8 games from May 20-29 (Lost NLDS)
Oakland Athletics – Lost 7 games from April 8-15 (Lost ALDS)

2000
New York Yankees – Lost 7 games from September 25-October 1 (Won World Series)
Seattle Mariners – Lost 8 games from August 12-20 (Lost ALCS)
San Francisco Giants – Lost 8 games from May 12-20 (Lost NLDS)

Teams Who Have Been At Least 7 Games Below .500 And Made The Postseason

2007
Colorado Rockies – 9 games below .500 on May 15 (Lost World Series)
Chicago Cubs – 9 games below .500 on June 2 (Lost NLDS)
New York Yankees – 8 games below .500 on May 29 (Lost ALDS)
Philadelphia Phillies – 7 games below .500 on April 20 (Lost NLDS)

2006
Los Angeles Dodgers – 8 games below .500 on July 26 (Lost NLDS)
Minnesota Twins – 8 games below .500 on June 7 (Lost ALDS)
San Diego Padres – 7 games below .500 on April 29 (Lost NLDS)

2005
Houston Astros – 15 games below .500 on May 27 (Lost World Series)
New York Yankees – 8 games below .500 on May 6 (Lost ALDS)

2002
Anaheim Angels – 8 games below .500 on April 23 (Won World Series)

2001
Oakland Athletics – 10 games below .500 on May 1 (Lost ALDS)

2000
San Francisco Giants – 7 games below .500 on April 20 (Lost NLDS)