Your 2007 World Champion Red Sox

About 25 years ago, Bill James introduced a prediction system that picked the World Series winner with 70% accuracy. He wrote about the system for Inside Sports magazine in 1982, then expounded on it in his 1984 Baseball Abstract. He developed the system in 1972 and it accurately predicted the World Series winner at a 68% clip for 12 years. Then he went back and used it to predict all of the postseason series of the 20th century and it returned a success rate of 73%. So I’ve decided to apply the system to this year’s Fall Classic to see which team is expected to win.

The system hasn’t been updated since 1984 (as far as I know), so the point distribution may not be as precise as it should be. For example, James awards 19 points to the team that threw more shutouts during the regular season because at the time of the original research, teams with more shutouts had won 19 more postseason series than teams with fewer shutouts. There have been 35 years of postseason games since he developed the system and I have no doubt the point distribution should be adjusted based on the last three-and-a-half decades of playoff games, but for now we’ll stick with the old system and see how it does. Maybe someday I’ll update it and see how it works moving forward (or maybe James will).

Here’s how the system distributes points:

• Compare the won/lost records of the two teams involved. Award one point per half-game difference to the team with the better record.

• Give 3 points to the team that has scored more runs.

• Give 14 points to the team that has hit fewer doubles.

• Give 12 points to the team that has hit more triples.

• Give 10 points to the team that has hit more home runs.

• Give 8 points to the team with the lower team batting average.

• Give 8 points to the team that has committed fewer errors.

• Give 7 points to the team that has turned more double plays.

• Give 7 points to the team whose pitchers have walked more men.

• Give 19 points to the team that has thrown more shutouts.

• Give 15 points to the team whose ERA is further below the league ERA.

• Give 12 points to the team that has been in postseason play more recently. If both last appeared in postseason play in the same year, award the points to the team that was more successful at the time.

James included a 13th rule that pertained only to league or divisional playoffs and that awarded 12 points based on head-to-head competition during the season. At the time he developed the system there was no inter-league play, so it wouldn’t have applied to the World Series participants since the Fall Classic would have been the first time an American League team would have played a National League team (except for the All-Star game and during Spring Training, of course). The Red Sox and Rockies actually did play each other three times during inter-league play, with the Rockies taking two out of the three contests, but frankly, I don’t feel comfortable awarding 12 points based on the results of a three-game series.

Let’s see how the points are distributed between Boston and Colorado:

• Compare the won/lost records of the two teams involved. Award one point per half-game difference to the team with the better record.

Boston had a regular season record of 96-66, while Colorado posted a mark of 90-73. That’s a 6 1/2 game difference, which gives the Red Sox 13 points. They’re up 13-0.

• Give 3 points to the team that has scored more runs.

This one was close. Boston scored 867 runs, while Colorado scored 860. That’s another three points for the Red Sox and they now hold a 16-0 lead.

• Give 14 points to the team that has hit fewer doubles.

The Red Sox, as would be expected based on their history and Fenway Park’s propensity for increasing doubles, belted a league high 352 two-baggers, while the Rockies slapped out 313. Colorado gets the 14 points, which cuts Boston’s lead to 16-14.

I should explain why the team with fewer doubles gets the points before I move on. James concluded that teams with more doubles are more aggressive on the base paths and that they exploited weaknesses during the regular season that won’t be present in the World Series. I don’t totally agree with that, not because I think he’s wrong, but because Boston’s doubles total is typically inflated more by Fenway Park’s dimensions than by aggressive base running. In fact, I could argue that the Red Sox are usually less aggressive on the bases than a lot of teams, relying more on power than speed, but the ’07 squad has used speed and aggression more than in the past, so James may have a point in this case. Besides, teams with more doubles have lost approximately 60% of the time in the postseason. So, the Rockies get 14 unanswered points and are within two of the Carmine Hose.

• Give 12 points to the team that has hit more triples.

The Rockies had one more triple than the Red Sox, lacing out 36 three-baggers to Boston’s 35. Colorado gets the points to move ahead, 26-16. I could argue that even more aggression on the bases is needed to leg out more triples than the opposition, but I could also argue that a triple puts the runner only 90 feet from pay dirt, which makes the risk worth it.

• Give 10 points to the team that has hit more home runs.

The Rockies hit five more homers than the Sox, belting 171 to Boston’s 166. Suddenly Colorado has a sizable lead, 36-16.

Another interesting argument can be made that perhaps ballpark factors need to be considered in future versions of the prediction system. Coors Field isn’t the homer haven that it used to be, but it still ranks fifth in all of baseball in HR factor (1.218). Meanwhile Fenway Park, which is often mistaken for a home run park, has the 23rd-ranked HR factor (.876). On the other hand, teams that hit more homers have probably won 10 more postseason series than those who don’t (hence the 10 points) and this is James’ system, so regardless of ballpark factors, Colorado gets the points.

• Give 8 points to the team with the lower team batting average.

The Red Sox hit .279 and the Rockies hit. 280, so the points go to Boston. It’s almost a shame to award points for a one-point difference (actually it’s even closer than that as only .00027 points separate the two), but someone needs to get the points.

Boston’s average is inflated by Fenway, which boasts the best hits factor (1.139) in all of baseball, but Colorado’s is also inflated by Coors, which ranks second (1.120). And an explanation is in order as to why the team with the lower AVG gets the edge. “Why do teams with high batting averages do poorly in World Series play?,” asked James. “A simple reason: it takes them too many hits to score.” The Rockies aren’t exactly a Punch-and-Judy club, and neither is Boston. The Sox get the eight points and cut Colorado’s lead to 36-24.

• Give 8 points to the team that has committed fewer errors.

No explanation needed here. The Rockies committed the fewest errors in baseball (68); only Baltimore booted the ball less than Boston (81) in the A.L. That’s not good enough, though. Colorado gets the points and pushes its advantage to 44-24.

• Give 7 points to the team that has turned more double plays.

Colorado turned 178 DPs, while Boston turned only 145, the fewest in the American League. Of course that’s a product of fewer base runners (Boston’s pitchers held opposing batters to a league best .314 on base percentage), but that’s neither here nor there. The Rockies get the points and now hold a 51-24 lead.

• Give 7 points to the team whose pitchers have walked more men.

Colorado’s staff walked 504 batters during the season, while Boston’s issued free passes to 482. Seven more points go to the Rockies to give them a 58-24 lead.

To be honest, I’m not quite sure why the team with more walks gets the points here and James doesn’t really explain it. He attributes a lot of the walks to the starters at the back end of the rotation, but admits that those hurlers will have little impact on the outcome of the World Series. I suppose that more walks means fewer chances to get a hit that might plate a run or an extra-base hit that might plate multiple runs while putting runners in scoring position. Either way, Colorado gets seven more points, giving them a commanding 58-24 lead.

• Give 19 points to the team that has thrown more shutouts.

The Red Sox tossed almost twice as many shutouts (13) as the Rockies (7) and earn a whopping 19 points to get back into the “game.” Colorado’s lead is now down to 15 at 58-43.

• Give 15 points to the team whose ERA is further below the league ERA.

Boston’s ERA of 3.87 is 0.63 below the A.L. average of 4.50. Colorado’s 4.32 mark is only 0.11 points lower than the N.L. average. The Red Sox have tied the contest at 58-58 with only one category to go.

• Give 12 points to the team that has been in postseason play more recently. If both last appeared in postseason play in the same year, award the points to the team that was more successful at the time.

Colorado’s last and only postseason appearance came in 1995 when they won the wild card before losing to the Braves in the NLDS. The Red Sox won the wild card in 2005 but lost to the White Sox in the ALDS and, of course, won the 2004 World Series. Boston gets another 12 points to make the final tally 70-58 and make them the favorite to win a second championship in four years.

If the Series follows the point distribution pattern, this is going to be one hell of a Fall Classic, with the Rockies jumping out to an early lead and Boston forging back in dramatic fashion to win it in seven games. Amazingly had I included the inter-league results, the score would have been 70-70. No matter how you slice it, this looks to be shaping up to be a memorable October (and November).

Category (points)			Edge	BOS Pts.	COL Pts.
Won/Lost Record (1 per 1/2 game)	99-66	90-73		13	0
More Runs (3)	867	860		3	0
Fewer Doubles (14)	352	313		0	14
More Triples (12)	35	36		0	12
More Home Runs (10)	166	171		0	10
Lower Batting Average (8)	.279	.280		8	0
Fewer Errors (8)	81	68		0	8
More Double Plays (7)	145	178		0	7
More Walks Issued (7)	482	504		0	7
More Shutouts (19)	13	7		19	0
ERA Lower than LG (15)	0.63	0.11		15	0
More Recent Postseason (12)	2005	1995		12	0
2007 World Series Champion				70	58