Nolan Ryan
Nolan Ryan is a Hall of Fame pitcher – there is no question about that. But exactly how good was he and how does he compare to the other HOF pitchers?
People are usually surprised when I explain that Nolan Ryan’s career more closely resembles that of Don Sutton than those of truly outstanding pitchers like Tom Seaver or Bob Gibson. Because of his no-hitters and the career strikeout record, fans are surprised to hear that Ryan is in the Hall more for his longevity than for his dominance.
The NEWS HOF Gauge has established a score of 235 as the benchmark for HOF numbers for a starting pitcher. Tom Seaver is the #7 best pitcher of the 20th century with a NEWS score of 288. Bob Gibson is #11 with a 273. But neither Nolan Ryan nor Don Sutton is among the top 25 starting pitchers. Ryan has a NEWS score of 227 and Sutton has a 220.
But both Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton had long careers (27 seasons for Nolan and 23 seasons for Don). And each of them was able to earn 300 win shares during those careers (334 win shares for Ryan and 319 for Sutton). And the NEWS HOF Gauge points out that any pitcher with 300 win shares deserves to be in the Hall even if his NEWS score is below 235. In fact, every pitcher who has earned 300 career win shares (and has been eligible) has been elected to the Hall – except for Bert Blyleven (who should be elected soon).
Look at these numbers for the four pitchers discussed above. The number in front of the name is the rank among starting pitchers of the century. The third number after the name is the NEWS score.
| |
Player |
CWS |
CV |
NEWS |
| 7. |
Tom Seaver |
388 |
255 |
288 |
| 11. |
Bob Gibson
|
317
|
258
|
273
|
| 44. |
Nolan Ryan |
334 |
191 |
227 |
| 48. |
Don Sutton |
319 |
187 |
220 |
The first number after the name is the CWS (career win shares). All four pitchers have 300 or more. The second number is the CV (core value) – the sum of the win shares for his ten best seasons. This is the number that tells you just how DOMINANT the pitcher was. Seaver and Gibson averaged almost 26 win shares per season for their ten best seasons. That is true pitching greatness over a sustained period of time.
Ryan and Sutton averaged 19 win shares over their ten best seasons. That is also exceptional pitching. But it is nowhere close to the dominance exhibited by Seaver and Gibson.
Here are some pitchers comparable to Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton.
| Player |
CWS |
CV |
NEWS |
| Wes Ferrell |
233 |
229 |
230 |
Bucky Walters
|
258
|
220
|
230
|
| Red Faber |
292 |
206 |
228 |
| Nolan Ryan |
334 |
191 |
227 |
| Bob Lemon |
232 |
223 |
225 |
Bob Gibson
|
317
|
258
|
273
|
| Nolan Ryan |
334 |
191 |
227 |
| Don Sutton |
319 |
187 |
220 |
Nolan Ryan was a great pitcher who deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. But his career more closely resembles that of Don Sutton than it does that of Tom Seaver or Bob Gibson. Ryan just wasn’t in their league.
For more info on the NEWS HOF Gauge, see BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site.
Although the numbers are interesting, I don’t think there is any real argument about that. Nolan Ryan could never harness his pitches effectively enough to ever be much more than a slightly above .500 pitcher. In his best seasons-I’d say his first 2 with the Angels, he was 19-16 and 21-16. He’d be in the HOF anyways with the all time K record. He ended up only 32 wins better than .500 and 3rd all time in losses.
Still, he certainly has to be one of the worst trades of all time!
Don Sutton certainly never had the top performance years of Ryan, but over his entire career he was a more consistent pitcher. He never walked 100 in a season, ended up 68 games over .500 in his career, and had a better post-season pitching record than Ryan too. If you were looking for a pitcher for one game, you’d probably take Ryan and hope he was on. For a season, I’d take Drysdale.
John,
I do think that many fans have an exaggerated idea of how good Nolan Ryan was.
Otherwise, how can you explain that he was a first round pick for the Hall of Fame – and (correct me if I am wrong) received the HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF VOTES EVER for the Hall?
He simply was that THAT GOOD.
Ryan received a higher percentage than Seaver? That’s just ridiculous. No man named Lynn should hold THAT record… :)
What does your study suggest about Bucky Walters. It appears you have him ranked with a bunch of Hall of Famers – Was his ten best that good?
Every argument that critics use against Blyleven – mediocre winning percentage, no Cy Youngs, compiled huge numbers by hanging around a long time – applies to Nolan Ryan. Ryan is elected 1st ballot with over 98% of the vote, while Blyleven is still on the outside after a decade on the ballot.