2008 BBWAA Results – Some Thoughts
Congratulations to Goose Gossage on his election to the Hall of Fame. He got 86% of the vote and was the only candidate elected. As we have said here before, Gossage has HOF numbers and should have been elected long ago.
Three other players scored better than 60% of the vote and will probably be elected some day. They are Jim Rice, Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven.
Jim Rice got 72% of the vote this year and almost certainly will be elected next year. It will be his last chance because 2009 will be his fifteenth (and last) year on the ballot. Rice does not have HOF numbers according to the NEWS HOF Gauge. In fact, he is not even close. His NEWS score is 245 when he needs a score of 280. He is a good example of the marginal player who hangs around on the ballot for a long time but really does not deserve induction into the Hall of Fame.
Andre Dawson got 66% of the vote and has a very good chance of getting in within the next few years. However, like Jim Rice, Dawson does not deserve to be in the Hall of Fame. His NEWS score of 261 is better than Rice but is still far short of the benchmark of 280. Like Rice, he may get in if he hangs around long enough (this was his seventh year on the ballot).
Bert Blyleven got 62% of the vote and, hopefully, will be elected within the next few years. He is the 24th best starting pitcher of the 20th century according to the NEWS HOF Gauge and should have been elected long ago (this was his eleventh year on the ballot).
Only three other players on the ballot had HOF numbers according to the NEWS HOF Gauge: Lee Smith, Tim Raines and Mark McGwire.
Lee Smith got 43% of the votes this year. This was his sixth year on the ballot and he got 45% in 2006. So, it is anyone’s guess as to whether he will ever get enough votes.
Tim Raines was on the ballot for the first time this year and he got 24% of the vote. He certainly has HOF numbers (a NEWS score of 304). He is the 48th best position player of the century. But, obviously, he is underappreciated by many of those doing the voting. We can only hope that many more of the voters will come to their senses over the next few years and elect this man to the Hall.
Mark McGwire has HOF numbers but he is also under the “steroids†cloud. He got 128 votes this year – the exact same number as last year. That would certainly seem to indicate that the writers are holding firm. So, what does this mean? Can we conclude anything from this? My conclusion is as follows: Mark McGwire will never be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.
As reluctant as I am to think that the majority of writers could agree on any firm principle, I am concluding now that most of them (rightly or wrongly) will not vote for a candidate implicated in the “steroid scandal.”
I am not saying that I believe that this is good or bad. But what it says to me is that if a writer will not vote for Mark McGwire, why would he vote, for example, for Rafael Palmeiro or Sammy Sosa or Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens? Fairly or not, a good number of elite players have been negatively affected by this issue. And if McGwire is not elected, why would we think any of the others would be. I really do not think it will mean anything to most of the voters that Bonds or Clemens were “better players†than McGwire. I think the “principle†of not voting for “steroid players†will prevail. I think there is a good chance that none of the “tainted†players will ever be elected to the Hall of Fame.
For more info on the NEWS HOF Gauge, see BASEBALL’S BEST: The TRUE Hall of Famers on this site.
Of the steroidal players you mentioned, I think Palmeiro and Bonds both have good shots to eventually get in. My question to you sir, is what NEWS scores do Dave Parker and Bill Madlock have? I would have to think Parker’s has to be at least around where Dawson is. I’d also think Madlock would be significantly less, but I think 4 batting titles and a runner up are more than enough qualification.
Has Fred Lynn dropped off the ballot already?
I believe I’ve read that anyone who ever gets 60% of the writers vote eventually gets in either by the writers or the veterans committee. I sure hope it’s the case again here, all three players are HOF’ers to me.
Some thoughts on your thoughts.
1. Bonds may indeed someday be elected to the Hall since his numbers are so outstanding. But why you would think that Palmeiro might get in if McGwire does not really escapes me.
2. Dave Parker has a NEWS score of 268 – better than Jim Rice or Andre Dawson. Bill Madlock only has a 208 despite the four batting titles. He lasted only one year on the BBWAA ballot (1993) getting less than 5% of the votes.
3. Fred Lynn (NEWS score of 239) dropped off the ballot after 1997. He was on the ballot for only two years.
4. Gil Hodges got 63% of the vote in 1983 – his last year on the ballot. And, of course, he is not yet in the Hall. The odd part is that he got 50% of the vote in only his third year but never made the 75% needed. That really is strange.
Mike, thanks for the numbers. I would have thought Lynn and Rice would be about comparable, and they were. I have a feeling the veterans committee will be re-re-revised again, just because they have gone to the other extreme of not letting anyone in. Anyone who doesn’t believe Doug Harvey should be in the HOF isn’t credible.
I think Palmeiro has a chance for one and only one reason. He claimed that he failed his test because he thought it was a B-12 injection from Tejada, and Tejada has now been named. Although I think he used them when Canseco said he did(and the sudden jump in his numbers backs this up) I think it’s possible he had gotten off them when they were banned, and he really did get snookered by Tejada.
Plus, he was a pleasant guy. That makes a huge difference for the writers. Parker was a gigantic a-hole, yet with his NEWS scores better than both Rice and Dawson he gets around 20%? A ton of the Hall balloting has always been a popularity contest.
Mike,
Since you brought up Hodges, can you tell us what Ron Santo’s NEWS score is? It’s perceived that they’re the most deserving of VC election, so I’m wondering where Santo ranks.
Thanks!
Ron Santo has a NEWS score of 287 and has definite HOF numbers. He is the #71 best position player. In fact, he is the 5th best third baseman of the century – behind only (in order) Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, George Brett and Wade Boggs. Santo got nearly 70% of the VC vote the last time – so his time should be coming soon.
An argument could be made that (aside from Dick Allen) Santo is the most deserving player who is not in the Hall. I would say that Sherry Magee and Bill Dahlen would be the next most deserving of the “older players.”
Gil Hodges has a NEWS score of only 232. Based on his on-the-field numbers, he does not have HOF credentials. If you feel his managerial years should count, then maybe he belongs. However, I am one of those who feel that such other contributions (managing, broadcasting, executive, etc.) should NOT count.