Is Piniella’s Decision on Fukudome a Mistake?
March 22, 2008 by Mike Lynch · 7 Comments
Cubs skipper Lou Piniella recently unveiled a new lineup that would be more productive with Kosuke Fukudome leading off instead of hitting fifth.
A few days ago, Cubs manager Lou Piniella announced that he’d tweaked his lineup and moved Alfonso Soriano out of the lead-off spot in favor of Ryan Theriot, inserted Soriano into the three hole, and penciled Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome into the number two slot. Piniella also averred that had he not inserted the left-handed batting Felix Pie into the eight hole, he would have preferred using Fukudome in the lead-off spot. Instead he’s going with the right-handed hitting Theriot in the lead-off spot to avoid bunching too many same-handed hitters together in the batting order.
That certainly makes sense, but Piniella took a small step backwards on Saturday when, after “sleeping on it,” he chose to adjust his lineup again by moving Soriano to the two hole and dropping Fukudome to fifth in the order. Mathematically, his original gut instinct made more sense. Putting Fukudome in one of the first two spots will most likely generate the most runs for the Cubs. Moving Soriano to second and dropping Fukudome to fifth decreases their potential output. While the difference is negligible, it’s worth investigating nonetheless.
The lineup analysis tool at baseballmusings.com shows that a lineup with Fukudome at the top of the Cubs’ order has the potential to score the most runs (statistics are based on CHONE projections):
| Order | Player | POS | AVG | OBA | SLG |
| 1. | Kosuke Fukudome | RF | .283 | .373 | .465 |
| 2. | Derrek Lee | 1B | .301 | .390 | .524 |
| 3. | Geovany Soto | C | .275 | .351 | .464 |
| 4. | Aramis Ramirez | 3B | .297 | .361 | .541 |
| 5. | Alfonso Soriano | LF | .283 | .338 | .534 |
| 6. | Mark DeRosa | 2B | .274 | .353 | .417 |
| 7. | Ryan Theriot | SS | .268 | .332 | .360 |
| 8. | Felix Pie | CF | .272 | .326 | .433 |
| 9. | Pitcher | SP | .160 | .182 | .191 |
The above lineup would be expected to score 5.118 runs per game, or 829 over the course of a season.
Putting Soto in the three hole may be a bit optimistic and not quite as sexy as having Lee, a more traditional number three hitter, hit in that spot. Prior to last year’s breakout season at Triple-A Iowa in which he hit .353 with 26 homers and 109 RBIs in 110 games, followed by a cup of coffee in the bigs in which he batted .389 with a .433 on-base average and a .667 slugging percentage, Soto hadn’t done much in his six previous minor league seasons. The highest he’d ever batted was .272 in 2006, the most home runs he’d ever hit was nine in 2004, and the most runs he’d driven in was 48, also in 2004. Soto is batting .233 with no homers, five RBIs and four runs this spring, so it’s doubtful Piniella would put him in the three hole.
Although the Fukudome-led lineup is potentially the most productive, Piniella has decided to go in a different direction:
| Order | Player | POS | AVG | OBA | SLG |
| 1. | Ryan Theriot | SS | .268 | .332 | .360 |
| 2. | Alfonso Soriano | LF | .283 | .338 | .534 |
| 3. | Derrek Lee | 1B | .301 | .390 | .524 |
| 4. | Aramis Ramirez | 3B | .297 | .361 | .541 |
| 5. | Kosuke Fukudome | RF | .283 | .373 | .465 |
| 6. | Mark DeRosa | 2B | .274 | .353 | .417 |
| 7. | Geovany Soto | C | .275 | .351 | .464 |
| 8. | Felix Pie | CF | .272 | .326 | .433 |
| 9. | Pitcher | SP | .160 | .182 | .191 |
The above lineup would be expected to score 5.054 runs per game, or 819 over the course of a season. It’s a more traditional lineup with the team’s top stolen base threat hitting first, their best overall hitter batting third, their top slugger hitting clean-up, and their least experienced batters occupying the seventh and eighth spots. And it’s only slightly less effective than the lineup he announced a few days ago (that lineup would have been expected to score 5.067 runs per game, or 821 on the season).
The above assumes a lot—that the players will hit as expected, that Fukudome will acclimate well to the majors, and that Soto will more closely resemble the hitter he was last year than the hitter he was from 2001-2006. It also fails to account for the “human factor.” For example, it assumes Soriano will be an effective number two hitter, even though he’s expressed displeasure about being moved from the lead-off spot, claiming he’s distracted at the plate when men are on base. Not to mention that Soriano is a career .161 hitter in the two hole and hasn’t batted in that spot since early in his career. But putting Soriano back in the lead-off spot could drop the Cubs below five runs a game. In fact, some of the least productive lineups feature Soriano at the top of the batting order.
Piniella’s proposed lineup may not be as potentially productive as the “ideal” lineup, but a difference of 10 runs is hardly worth quibbling over. Assumptions aside, “Sweet Lou” seems to be on the right track.
I would think the second lineup, to begin the season, would be a reasonable deal if Soriano and Fukudome switch positions. Soriano has more or less chronic leg trouble now and that combined with his high strikeouts make him a bad choice for the one or two spots.
Soto may develop into a good three guy, but to put him there on opening day might be too much pressure. Fukudome seems like a perfect two guy.
I think the linchpin is Lee. He is still seeing the ball well and making solid contact, but his power brownout since he and Rafael Furcal had their unscheduled meeting is worrying. If he can’t produce the RBIs in that spot, it may have to fall on Geo’s shoulders. If he can find his groove again, the heart of the order will be deadly with Lee, Ramirez, Soriano.
The production of this lineup in my opinion could be very strong, but could also go the other way. Starting three rookies and a sophomore is a gamble. Lou may be a raving psycho by July. It’ll be fun to watch, in any case.
I just looked and Theriot had 134 ABs in 2006, so he’s not technically a sophomore, and Pie got 177, so he’s no rookie, but he seems very raw and unproven and Theriot will have to come on strong to solidify his major league regular status.
I’d say that any lineup where Soriano ISN’T the lead-off hitter is a step in the right direction. Fukudome (or Fooky, per Pinella) would probably be better in the 2 spot, but then again he hasn’t had an MLB AB yet, so there’s probably no harm in keeping him further down for the time being. Also keep in mind that last season, Pinella experimented with 125 distinct batting orders in 162 games. Some of that was due to injuries, and he’s said that he hopes not to have to change around as much this season, but still, it shows that he’s not afraid to tweak things as the season progresses. Now whether he tweaks them “correctly” or not remains to be seen…
Taking a more macro view, I think this is one area in baseball that needs to be experimented with.
Why not put the guys with the best projected OBA #1 through #9 …
It’s a simple idea: the guys who prevent outs at the highest rate get more PA.
dchase-Then who cleans up the mess when Joe Morgan’s head explodes?
Actually Bill James conducted an experiment in which he played thousands of games using different lineups to determine if batting order really made any difference and he concluded that the difference between a “reasonable” batting order and a completely “unreasonable” batting order was a 5% net loss in runs scored. Which means the difference between two reasonable batting orders is virtually nothing. I’m guessing the Cubs’ lineup will score as many runs with Fukudome hitting fifth as they would with him leading off. But I still think Soriano is a lousy lead off hitter and Piniella was smart to move him down a notch.
A simple look at Soriano’s homerun and strikeout totals says he should be in the middle of a lineup. This notion of his that he’s distracted by men on base is ridiculous. Instead of whining about his position in the order, he should be working to improve his hitting with men on base.