SHL Expansion Three: For All The Marbles

The Toronto Blue Jays cling to a two-game lead over the Arizona/Colorado D’Rocks with only four to go.  Can the Jays hang on or will the D’Rocks make a heroic run to the playoffs?

So it all comes down to this.  With 150 games already in the books, it comes down to four final games to decide which team will represent the Expansion Three division in the SHL playoffs.  Neither team apparently wants to take the bull by the horns and ride it into the postseason, each playing identical .414 ball over their last 29 games.  The Jays jumped out to a nice start, winning 42 of their first 71 games for a stellar .592 winning percentage, but have gone only 34-45 since, for a more pedestrian .430 mark.  They’re 76-74 overall.  The D’Rocks have been steady all season, never getting more than five games over .500, nor more than two below; in fact, they’ve been within three games of .500 over their last 79 games, and didn’t dip below that mark until losing three of four to start October.  They’re 74-76 overall.

Blue Jays: Toronto’s problems can be traced directly to its pitching staff, which has floundered of late.  Jays hurlers allowed 5.9 runs per game in September, posted a team ERA of 5.42, and surrendered five runs or more 15 times in 25 games.

Jimmy Key has been the team’s most consistent starter over the last month, going 3-1 with a 4.45 ERA and three quality starts in four trips to the mound, and he has a 2.25 ERA in his lone October start so far.  But he went 2-4 with a 8.66 ERA in July and August, so it’s hard to tell which Key will show up in his next start.  Not to mention he’s 0-2 with a 8.18 ERA in his two starts against the Mariners, against whom he’ll be pitching tonight.

Roger Clemens struggled to a 1-2 record and a 4.71 ERA in September, but he’s been solid all year at 13-10 with a 3.48 ERA and 241 strikeouts in 246 innings, and he owns the Mariners, going 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA against them this year.  A.J. Burnett went 2-2 with a 5.45 ERA last month and has never faced Seattle.  Roy Halladay will get the final start of the regular season and that could be a dicey proposition, considering he was 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA last month, and is 6-12 with a 6.25 ERA since June 1.  He’s 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA against Seattle, however, and he allowed only one run in eight innings in his last start, beating the Dodgers, 9-2.

The bullpen is also in disarray, getting solid performances from a couple of pitchers—B.J. Ryan (1-1, 0.90) and Scott Downs (3.38 ERA)—but suffering through horrible performances from the rest.  Closer Tom Henke went 0-2 with two blown saves and a 6.52 ERA last month; Mark Eichhorn posted a 7.15 ERA in 10 appearances; and Duane Ward posted an ERA of 6.00 in 11 appearances.  Henke has done well against Seattle, going 3-for-3 in save opportunities, and Eichhorn has yet to allow a run to the Mariners in three appearances, but Ward shouldn’t even be allowed to dress for the four-game series with Seattle, as he’s allowed five runs on five hits and seven walks to the M’s in only four innings.

The team’s offense is still solid and should do just fine against a Mariners staff that boasts the worst starters’ ERA in the SHL at 5.78, and third worst team ERA at 5.27.  Carlos Delgado is one of the league’s best hitters, pacing the SHL in slugging at .626, and if not for Lou Gehrig, Delgado might have walked away with MVP honors at the end of the season.  He’s hitting .317 with 40 homers and 112 RBIs, and didn’t skip a beat in September, hitting .287 with eight homers and 24 RBIs in 24 games.  Devon White is still red-hot, batting .341 with 11 doubles and 24 runs scored last month, and leads the team in hitting at .337.

Catcher Ernie Whitt has quietly put together a good year, hitting .298 with 17 homers and 57 RBIs, and was especially potent in September, hitting .329/.402/.571 with 16 RBIs.  Roberto Alomar is hitting .299 with 37 steals and 98 runs, and is finding his power stroke at the right time, belting a season-high four homers last month.  And Joe Carter is providing power off the bench, belting 10 homers in 77 games, six of which have come since September 11.

Tony Fernandez, Troy Glaus, and Lloyd Moseby are all mired in slumps, but Moseby still managed to drive in 17 runs and score 16 in September, and Fernandez and Glaus have played stellar defense all season, so they still provide value with their gloves.

Scheduled Match-ups vs. Seattle
A.J. Burnett	6-3	4.60		Felix Hernandez	8-13	6.98
Jimmy Key	11-11	5.25		Erik Hanson	15-12	4.80
Roger Clemens	13-10	3.48		Freddy Garcia	6-7	5.16
Roy Halladay	12-17	4.51		Randy Johnson	13-16	5.45

D’Rocks: Whereas the Blue Jays are having problems with their pitching, the D’Rocks are benefiting from some great mound performances.  Instead their main issue is with their suddenly impotent bats.  Steve Finley had a fantastic September, posting a 1.066 OPS and leading the team with five homers and 13 RBIs, and going 8-for-10 in stolen base attempts, and Troy Glaus was solid, batting .293 with three homers and 10 ribbies, but the rest of the regulars fell into a collective funk, at least comparatively speaking.

Luis Gonzalez batted .291 with two homers and 12 RBIs, but slugged “only” .473, well below his season mark of .593; Larry Walker batted .263 with three homers and 11 RBIs, but slugged only .411, well below his season mark of .541; Todd Helton batted .224 with 1 homer and 12 RBIs and fell out of the batting race; Stephen Drew batted .232 with a homer and four RBIs.  Matt Holliday (.340/.404/.511) and Troy Tulowitzki (.353/.389/.559) were excellent, but they’re only part-time players.

The good news is the D’Rocks finish the season with the 48-102 Florida/Tampa Bay Marlins/Rays, against whom their regulars hit .308 this year, including a .368 mark from the 1-6 hitters.  Gonzalez blasted five homers in 10 games against the Floridians, and Walker had three circuit clouts and 10 RBIs against them.

Even better news is that the D’Rocks are getting peak performance from their pitchers just when they need it most.  Randy Johnson went 3-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 40 strikeouts in 43 1/3 innings last month, and is 6-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 95 whiffs since August 1.  He’ll start the first game of the four-game series tonight and will hope to do better than the 5.09 ERA he’s posted against the Marlins/Rays so far this season.  He’ll also have extra incentive to win tonight’s game; a victory will give him 20 on the year.

Miguel Batista went only 1-3, but with a solid 3.94 ERA, and has a 3.74 ERA in his last nine starts.  But he too struggles against the boys from Florida, going 0-1 with a 15.00 ERA in his lone start against them.  Brandon Webb went 3-1 with a 4.17 ERA in September and has a 4.15 ERA in his last 13 starts.  He’s 2-0 with a 3.78 ERA in three starts vs. the Marlins/Rays.

Curt Schilling went 0-3 with a 4.39 ERA to even his record on the year at 15-15, but he lost by scores of 4-1, 4-2, and 5-4, and has four one-run losses in his last six.  Schilling could start the team’s final game, and if they need a win, they couldn’t have a better man on the mound than Schill; he’s allowed the Marlins/Rays only seven hits in 18 innings and has a 1.00 ERA against them in two starts.  Aaron Cook hasn’t won a game since July 11, and is 0-6 with a 6.42 ERA since starting the season 4-1 with a 4.15 ERA, so he’ll most likely be bypassed.

The D’Rocks’ bullpen has been mostly fantastic as well.  Danny Haren was 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA last month and has been pretty solid since moving out of the rotation, and the quartet of Max Scherzer, Brandon Lyon, Brian Fuentes, and Taylor Buchholz combined for a 2.77 ERA in eight appearances.  The setup and closer roles didn’t do the team any favors last month, though—Jose Valverde imploded and blew three of four save opportunities, posted a 8.64 ERA in seven appearances, and allowed at least one run in four straight appearances from September 11-25; Bruce Ruffin went 0-1 with a 9.45 ERA in five games; and Manny Corpas posted a 5.87 ERA in five appearances.

Scheduled Match-ups vs. Florida/Tampa Bay
Randy Johnson	19-10	3.67		A.J. Burnett	8-19	6.25
Miguel Batista	10-11	5.35		Kevin Brown	8-13	5.28
Brandon Webb	16-12	4.52		Scott Kazmir	6-10	4.64
Curt Schilling	15-15	4.50		James Shields	4-16	5.08