SHL World Series Preview

The Cleveland Indians finally defeated the upstart Montreal Expos last night to advance to the Seamheads Historical League World Series where they’ll face the Boston Red Sox.  The Sox have yet to lose in the playoffs, but a World Series victory is far from a foregone conclusion.

Here’s how the teams stack up:

Pitchers

Cleveland Indians					Boston Red Sox
POS	Player	W-L	ERA		POS	Player	W-L	ERA
SP	Addie Joss	19-12	3.50		SP	Cy Young	27-5	2.65
SP	Gaylord Perry	12-4	4.22		SP	Pedro Martinez	19-10	3.32
SP	Stan Coveleski	13-9	4.25		SP	Lefty Grove	14-10	3.14
SP	Sam McDowell	16-12	4.57		SP	Joe Wood	15-9	3.26
CL	Doug Jones	39 SV	2.68		CL	Jonathan Papelbon	35 SV	2.59

The Red Sox appear to have a clear advantage in the pitching department, especially among the starters.  Boston’s four-man postseason rotation boasts a 3.07 regular season ERA, while Cleveland’s is a full run higher at 4.08.  But the Indians’ starters have done better than Boston’s during the postseason.  Cleveland’s rotation has posted a 3.96 ERA in 84 playoff innings, and if you remove Bob Feller, who’s been banished to the bullpen, it falls to 3.23.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox’s four primary hurlers have posted a 4.44 mark in 52 2/3 postseason innings. Most of that can be blamed on Pedro Martinez, who’s allowed 12 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings.  The other three starters have the same 3.07 ERA in the playoffs that they had in the regular season.  If Pedro can’t turn it around and the series goes six or seven games, the Sox have Roger Clemens (12-4, 4.70) to fall back on, although they’d probably rather not go that route.  The Indians’ hurlers have done better against the Sox than the Sox’s hurlers have done against the Indians, which could prove troublesome for Boston.

Boston also holds a decisive edge in bullpen strength.  Southpaw Mel Parnell (2-1, 3.20) anchors a middle relief corps that also includes Clemens and Dick Radatz (1-5, 4.90), setup men Bob Stanley (3-1, 2.57) and Derek Lowe (4-1, 3.18) have been very good all season, and Jonathan Papelbon has blown only five saves all season and boasts a 1.85 ERA in his last 33 appearances dating back to June 1.  Papelbon has had particular trouble against Cleveland’s hitters, though, allowing six runs to the Tribe in only four innings.

The back end of the Indians’ bullpen is also very good.  Don Mossi (4-0, 3.55) and Bert Blyleven (7-5, 3.32) form a solid duo of setup men, and Doug Jones was even more impressive than Papelbon in converting save opportunities, going 39-for-43 during the regular season.  He’s 2-for-2 in save opportunities in the playoffs and hasn’t allowed a run in four appearances.  The front end, however, leaves much to be desired.  C.C. Sabathia (2-2, 4.54), Bob Lemon (0-1, 5.27), and Feller occupy the middle relief and mop-up spots, and the trio has posted a 6.67 ERA in the playoffs so far.  The Indians might be best served if they moved Blyleven to middle relief and relegated Sabathia and Lemon to the end of the bullpen bench.

Starting Lineups

Cleveland Indians						Boston Red Sox
POS	Player	AVG	HR	RBI		POS	Player	AVG	HR	RBI
2B	Nap Lajoie	.327	7	73		CF	Tris Speaker	.330	13	76
CF	Tris Speaker	.325	8	63		3B	Wade Boggs	.332	7	57
RF	Joe Jackson	.334	9	103		LF	Ted Williams	.330	22	105
3B	Jim Thome	.294	25	82		1B	David Ortiz	.253	20	76
LF	Albert Belle	.293	36	125		RF	Reggie Smith	.308	19	73
1B	Hal Trosky	.299	16	78		SS	Nomar Garciaparra	.287	13	85
SS	Joe Sewell	.321	1	61		2B	Bobby Doerr	.245	10	56
C	Sandy Alomar	.257	9	53		C	Carlton Fisk	.229	15	83

Key Bench/Platoon Players

Cleveland Indians						Boston Red Sox
POS	Player	AVG	HR	RBI		POS	Player	AVG	HR	RBI
C	Johnny Romano	.295	12	50		1B	Jimmie Foxx	.270	9	41
2B	Roberto Alomar	.279	9	36		SS/3B	Joe Cronin	.278	3	24
3B	Al Rosen	.241	10	37		LF	Carl Yastrzemski	.263	3	25
SS	Lou Boudreau	.208	1	14		LF	Manny Ramirez	.249	15	55

Both lineups are pretty even at the top; the Red Sox hold an edge in batting average and power in the 1-3 holes, but the Indians make up for it with Jim Thome, Albert Belle, and Hal Trosky in the heart of the order.  From top to bottom, Cleveland’s lineup is also more consistent, and when you add Johnny Romano to the mix, it becomes even more impressive.  Alomar and Romano split catching duties right down the middle and combined to hit .276 with 21 homers and 103 RBIs as opposed to the Red Sox’s catching tandem of Carlton Fisk and Jason Varitek, who batted .235 with 17 homers and 90 runs batted in.

The Indians lose a little something when they face lefties as Thome rides the pine in favor of Al Rosen and Sewell takes a seat while the underachieving Lou Boudreau plays shortstop.  But Lajoie’s ability to play first allowed Roberto Alomar to slide into the lineup at second base and help take the sting out of losing the bats of Thome and Sewell.

The Red Sox lost a little something with a southpaw on the hill as well, but not as much as Cleveland.  Jimmie Foxx had a better OPS than Ortiz, Manny Ramirez provided good power in right field, hitting 15 homers in only 305 at-bats, and Joe Cronin posted an OPS only 34 points lower than Wade Boggs.

Cleveland led the SHL in runs scored with 885, and finished second in average at .291 and OPS at .806.  Boston finished fourth in runs scored with 853, fifth in OPS at .787, and eighth in average at .279.  Both are good at drawing walks—Boston finished second with 577, Cleveland was fifth with 551—and neither team strikes out much—the Indians fanned less than any team in the SHL (637), while Boston finished with the sixth fewest whiffs (698).

Last, and perhaps most important, is that Cleveland has been a thorn in Boston’s side all season.  The Red Sox went 101-45 against the rest of the SHL, a .692 clip, but lost six of eight to the Indians and were outscored 49-39.  The Red Sox finished with nine more wins than Cleveland in the regular season and according to the Pythagorean Theorem, the Sox were actually 13 games better than the Tribe.  But don’t size those virtual championship rings yet.  The Indians just might walk away with an upset victory and bring a baseball championship to “The Forest City” for the first time in 60 years.