John Smoltz and the Hall of Fame

As John Smoltz nears the end of his career, a number of people are raising the question as to whether he has the credentials for election to the Hall of Fame.

The CAWS Career Gauge is a tool that can be used to determine HOF credentials (CAWS stands for Career Assessment/Win Shares). It uses win shares and the concept of “core value” to determine HOF worthiness. And, as far as tools of this type go, it works reasonably well.

According to the CAWS Gauge, at the end of the 2008 season, there were only 39 pitchers in the modern era (since 1920) who had established obvious HOF numbers. And John Smoltz is not one of these – although he is reasonably close.

Here are some of these pitchers. All numbers include the 2008 season.
CWS = Career Win Shares
CV = Core Value (sum of win shares for 10 best seasons)
CAWS = Career Assessment/Win Shares = CV + .25(CWS – CV)

1. There are 25 pitchers who achieved a CAWS score of 235. Here are a few of them.

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
Roger Clemens	432	260	303
Tom Seaver	388	255	288
Greg Maddux	398	246	284
Bob Gibson	317	258	273
Randy Johnson	322	230	253
Bob Feller	292	239	252
Early Wynn	309	217	240
Juan Marichal	263	229	238

2. There are only four pitchers who did not achieve a score of 235 but did earn 300 win shares.

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
Tom Glavine	314	203	231
Nolan Ryan	334	191	227
Don Sutton	319	187	220
Dennis Eckersley	301	183	213

At the moment, Bert Blyleven is the only modern pitcher with 300 win shares who has been eligible but has not been elected to the Hall.

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
Bert Blyleven	339	218	248

3. There are only five pitchers who achieved a score of 180 with fewer than 2400 innings pitched. (For Pedro, this was through the 2004 season.)

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
Pedro Martinez	224	200	206
Sandy Koufax	194	190	191
Hoyt Wilhelm	256	168	190
Goose Gossage	223	173	186
Dizzy Dean	181	180	180

4. There are only five pitchers who achieved a score of 150 with fewer than 1700 innings pitched. These, of course, are the “pure” relievers.

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
Mariano Rivera	212	175	184
Bruce Sutter	168	163	164
Lee Smith	198	152	164
Dan Quisenberry	157	155	156
Rollie Fingers	188	144	155

All of the pitchers mentioned above have obvious HOF numbers. Now, where does John Smoltz fit into this picture?

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
John Smoltz	288	185	211

Smoltz does not reach the benchmark of 235 for category #1. Nor does he qualify in terms of innings pitched for categories #3 or 4. With 288 career win shares, he comes close to the 300 win shares criterion but falls a bit short here also.

Here are eight other very good pitchers who fell somewhat short of obvious HOF numbers.

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
Luis Tiant	256	198	213
Mike Mussina	270	186	207
Curt Schilling	252	191	206
Kevin Brown	241	193	205
Jim Kaat	268	181	203
Tommy John	289	165	196
Jack Morris	225	172	185
David Cone	205	173	181

An argument could be made that of the modern pitchers who do not have obvious HOF numbers but are definitely “borderline” – John Smoltz, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling top the list.

In fact, all three of these pitchers have better numbers than Catfish Hunter who is already in the Hall of Fame.

Player	CWS	CV	CAWS
Catfish Hunter	206	184	190

Thank you for your time.

If anyone would like to receive a free e-copy of the 100-page monograph:
A HALLOF FAME HANDBOOK: Who Belongs and Who Does Not, just check the info on the right side of the screen here at seamheads.com.

Mike Hoban
Prof Emeritus, City U of NY