Baseball Bloggers Alliance Cy Young Award Ballot

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I’ve been asked to vote on the postseason awards.  I’m only allowed to vote on one league and since I’m a Red Sox fan and an American League guy, I’m going with the A.L.  Here is my A.L. Cy Young ballot:

Because I typically have my head buried in the 1920s and ’30s, I asked my good friend Ted Noon to break out his custom formulae for determining pitching excellence.  The system is complex and I’m not confident in my ability to adequately explain how it works (“Damn it Jim, I’m a writer not a mathematician”), so I’m not going to try.  I will, however, include notes that Ted sent me that might help explain a few things.

In a nutshell, the formulae determines park and defense adjusted runs saved by each pitcher in different contexts, such as defense independent runs saved and runs saved on balls in play.

Here are Ted’s notes about each category:

Adjusted Run Average

“Since all defenses and park contexts have been neutralized, I found it redundant to give Adjusted ERA. Everything is based on 1954-2008 averages.”

Adjusted Innings Pitched

“Since I base EVERYTHING off of Batters Faced, Innings Pitched will adjust along with the other data.”

Adjusted Pitcher Control Runs Saved

“These are the runs saved by the pitcher due to things he can control alone (K, BB, HBP, HR).”

Adjusted BIP Runs Saved

“These are the runs saved by the pitcher by letting the ball be put into play and relying on his defense to make the putouts. This has also been neutralized to an average team from 1954-2008.”

Adjusted Total Runs Saved

“Adjusted Pitcher Control Runs Saved + Adjusted BIP Runs Saved.”

Here are the top three A.L. pitchers, based on total runs saved (also the order of my ballot):

Rank	Name	Team	Adj. Run AVG	Adj. IP	Adj. PC RS	Adj. BIP RS	Adj. TOT RS
1.	Zack Greinke	K.C.	2.30	230.7	-51.78	-3.159	-54.94
2.	Roy Halladay	TOR	2.87	241.3	-39.05	-2.974	-42.03
3.	Justin Verlander	DET	2.90	238.2	-52.01	11.337	-40.67

Greinke: Before consulting Ted, I was planning on ranking Greinke first on my ballot, so I was happy to see him rank #1 in total runs saved.  He went only 16-8, but that was mostly due to poor run support (only 3.8 runs per game) and the fact that he played for a horrible team that lost 97 games.  He paced the league in ERA at 2.16, ERA+ (203), WHIP (1.073), and HR/9 (0.4), surrendering only 11 homers in 229 1/3 innings.  He started 33 games and 26 were considered “quality,” only one of which I consider cheap (3 ER in 6 IP).  If Greinke was pitching for a contender, I think this would be a no-brainer.

Halladay: The Toronto ace enjoyed yet another outstanding year, going 17-10 with a 2.79 ERA, and finished second in Adjusted Total Runs Saved (-42.03) and third in Adjusted Run Average (2.87) behind Greinke (2.30) and Boston southpaw Jon Lester (2.81).  He led the league in complete games (9) for the third straight year and fifth time in 12 seasons, and paced the loop in shutouts (4), BB/9 (1.3) and K/BB ratio (5.94).  He ranked second in WHIP (1.125) and innings pitched (239), third in ERA+ (157), fourth in wins, and fifth in strikeouts (208). In any other year, Halladay would be a shoe-in, but there are too may strong contenders this season.

Verlander: Nobody saved more Pitcher Control runs than Verlander (-52.01) and the only hurler who was even close was Greinke (Javier Vazquez led the National League at -36.67), but his Adj. BIP Runs Saved of 11.337 knocked him from first in Total Runs Saved to third.  In fact, among A.L. qualifiers, only Carl Pavano had a higher mark (20.51).  Verlander ranked fourth in Adj. Run Average (2.90) and was second to Greinke (1.74) in Adjusted Pitcher Control Run Average at 2.55.  Verlander went 19-9 with a 3.45 ERA and led the league in wins, games started (35), innings (240), strikeouts (269), and K/9 (10.1).  Winning two legs of the pitching triple crown and playing for a contender may gove Verlander the edge over the others and I wouldn’t be surprised if he actually won the award.