Rating the 2012 Hall of Fame Candidates Based on Win Shares

One of the first items of business in baseball each year is the announcement of players elected to the Hall of Fame.  This leads to lots of speculation and a little analysis prior to the announcement which is scheduled forJanuary 9, 2012.

Many systems exist for evaluating player performance.  One such system, the Win Shares method, developed by Bill James in 2002, is a complex method for evaluating players which includes all aspects of performance – offense, defense and pitching.  James has stated that, “Historically, 400 Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame and 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer.  However, future standards may be different.  Players with 300-350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame.  In the future, they more often will not”.

The 2012 class of Hall of Fame candidates consists of 14 holdovers and 13 players eligible for the first time.   Ten holdovers have over 300 Win Shares, Rafael Palmeiro with 394, Tim Raines 390, Jeff Bagwell 387, Barry Larkin 347, Mark McGwire 342, Fred McGriff 326, Alan Trammell 318, Larry Walker 307 and Edgar Martinez 305.  The only newcomer with over 300 Win Shares is Bernie Williams with 311.

In 2011, Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven were elected to the Hall.  Alomar received 90.0% of the votes in his second year on the ballot  Blyleven received 79.7% in his 14^th year.  The 2011 ballot included 19 newcomers and 14 returning candidates.  Only 4 newcomers received enough votes (5.0%) to remain on the ballot (Jeff Bagwell, Larry Walker, Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez).  Dave Parker dropped off the ballot after falling short of election for 15 years.  Harold Baines dropped off the ballot after 5 years when he failed to get 5.0% of the vote.

The only holdovers to experience a significant increase in votes in 2011 were Barry Larkin who garnered 62.1% of the votes, up from 51.6% in 2010 and Tim Raines with 37.5% up from 30.4%.

The incoming class of Hall of Fame candidates this year is one of the thinnest in many years.  Bernie Williams is the only one with a legitimate chance of getting elected to the Hall and Tim Salmon is probably the only other one that will get enough votes to remain on the ballot.  This should open the door for Barry Larkin to get elected  and Jack Morris (53.5% in 2011) should also get a boost but probably won’t reach 75%.

The 2012 ballot is exceptionally short on pitchers with only 2 newcomers (Brad Radke and Terry Mulholland) and 2 holdovers (Morris and Lee Smith).

Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro have the numbers to be elected but remain tainted with the steroid cloud.  Voters are likely to wait until more is known about the extent of steroid usage before giving them a pass.  As a power hitter in what is called the steroid era, Jeff Bagwell’s vote total may also be affected although there is no evidence that he used steroids.

Following is a list of Win Shares for the 27 players on the ballot.  Players on the ballot for the first time are shown in bold.  Voting results for 2009, 2010 and 2011 are shown for the holdovers.

Player	Win Shares	2009 Votes	2009 Pct	2010 Votes	2010 Pct	2011 Votes	2011 Pct
Rafael Palmiero	394					64	11.0
Tim Raies	390	122	22.6	164	30.4	218	37.5
Jeff Bagwell	387					242	41.7
Barry Larkin	347			278	51.6	361	62.1
Mark McGwire	342	128	23.6	118	21.9	115	19.8
Fred McGriff	326			116	21.5	104	17.9
Alan Trammel	318	94	17.4	121	21.4	141	24.3
Bernie Williams	311
Larry Walker	307
Edgar Martinez	305			195	36.2	191	32.9
Dale Murphy	294	62	11.5	63	11.7	73	12.6
Don Mattingly	263	64	11.9	87	16.1	79	13.6
Juan Gonzalez	234					30	5.2
Tim Salmon	232
Jack Morris	225	237	44.0	282	52.3	310	53.5
Ruben Sierra	222
Lee Smith	198	240	44.5	255	47.3	263	45.3
Javier Lopez	194
Jeremy Burnitz	166
Brian Jordan	166
Eric Young	162
Brad Radke	157
Vinny Castilla	153
Phil Nevin	143
Bill Mueller	140
Tony Womack	119
Terry Mulholland	114

 

The last 18 players elected by the Baseball Writers have averaged 353 Win Shares, a figure exceeded by only Palmeiro, Raines and Bagwell on the ballot this year.

Player	Year	Win Shares
Dave Winfield	2001	415
Kirby Puckett	2001	281
Ozzie Smith	2002	325
Gary Carter	2003	337
Eddie Murray	2003	437
Paul Molitor	2004	414
Dennis Eckersley	2004	301
Wade Boggs	2005	394
Ryne Sandberg	2005	346
Bruce Sutter	2006	168
Cal Ripken	2007	427
Tony Gwynn	2007	398
Goose Gossage	2008	223
RickeyHenderson	2009	535
Jim Rice	2009	282
Andre Dawson	2010	340
Roberto Alomar	2011	375
Bert Blyleven	2011	339

Average Wins shares for the above players = 353

Win Shares are fundamentally a quantitative measure of a player’s accomplishments.  A measure of the quality of a player’s offensive performance is OPS+ which compares his OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging average) with the league average during his career.  An OPS+ of 120 suggests that his performance is 20% better than that of a league average player.  A similar approach (ERA+) can be used to compare a pitcher’s ERA against the league average during his career.

Following is a rank order of OPS+ and ERA+ for the 27 candidates on the 2011 ballot: 

Batter	OPS+	Pitcher	ERA+
Mark McGwire	162	Lee Smith	131
Jeff Bagwell	149	Brad Radke	113
Edgar Martinez	147	Jack Morris	105
Larry Walker	140	Terry Mulholland	94
Fred McGriff	134
Raphael Palmiero	132
Juan Gonzalez	132
Tim Salmon	128
Don Mattingly	127
Bernie Williams	125
Tim Raines	123
Dale Murphy	121
Barry Larkin	116
Phil Nevin	114
Javy Lopez	112
Jeremy Burnitz	111
Alan Trammel	110
Bill Mueller	109
Rubin Sierra	105
Brian Jordan	104
Vinny Castilla	95
Eric Young	92
Tony Womack	72

The Win Shares system favors players with long productive careers like Raines and Palmeiro, while OPS+ rewards strong offensive players who had shorter, more dominant careers like Martinezand Mattingly.  ERA+ favors relief pitchers since their ERAs are generally lower because they are not charged with runs scored by inherited runners.

 

Conclusions:

 

1.         Barry Larkin will be elected in 2012.

2.         Other holdovers like Morris and Bagwell will move up but fall short of the 75% required. Bagwell could move up to be in position to be elected at the same time as long-time teammate, Craig Biggio next year.

3.         McGwire and Palmeiro will gain some support but will remain way short of election.

4.         Among the newcomers, Williams and possibly Salmon are the only ones that will receive enough votes to remain on the ballot.

5.         The incoming class in 2013 is exceptionally strong – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza and Sammy Sosa.

6.         There will not be a groundswell of support for Tony Womack and Terry Mulholland.

If I had a ballot, I would cast votes for Bagwell, Larkin, Raines, McGwire and Trammell.