The Trade Deadline Eruption Will Breed a Flowering Free Agent Circus

The trade deadline that passed last Friday afternoon precipitated more activity than has been seen in Major League baseball in quite a few years. And yet the eruption of talented players changing teams last week is merely a foreshadowing of the more remarkable Vesuvius of activity that will begin as soon as the last pitch is thrown in the 2015 post-season. The Lindberg article linked above asserts that both the total number of players–154–and the high impact players–9 more than 3.7 WAR–ranks this July highest in terms of annual deadline frenzy. What kind of cause and effect will this all have?

Almost all of the players changing teams last week are free agents who will hit the market in the off-season and those are just the most obvious entrants into what will be a Demolition Derby of teams elbowing without regard for safety as each seeks that ideal catalyst for growth in the ever hopeful tilling of new ground for the 2016 season. David Price and Johnny Cueto are the best two pitchers who will be shopping for new homes over the winter. Price alone would make it a bounteous crop of talent, but he is joined not only by Cueto but also Jordan Zimmermann, Jeff Samardzija, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Doug Fister and Mike Leake, to name the best of the spring bouquet teams will be plucking from to add to their rotations.

And that is just the starting pitchers. Outfielders Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jason Heyward will be changing teams along with Dexter Fowler, Denard Span and Austin Jackson–for teams needing center fielder upgrades.

Focusing first on the 2015 horse race, exit polling seems to favor the Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers as teams who landed the biggest prizes last week.  The Blue Jays are the team with the farthest distance to travel to get to the winner’s circle, but adding David Price, Troy Tulowitzki and Ben Revere gives Toronto better than a dark horse chance to catch the New York Yankees whose tendencies to fade in the last two months of the season have been well-documented.

The resurgence of 35-year old Mark Teixiera and 40-year old Alex Rodriguez has fueled the Yankee run, but how much do these Bronx Bombers have left in the tank? And their starting pitching has been atrocious and Michael Pineda is back on the shelf. Big George would have been the one making waves last week, but the men in Pinstripes added nothing of note to help them fend off the Blue Jays, who are a scant 5.5 games behind New York. I am predicting a Blue Jay win.

The Astros, Dodgers and Royals are all leading their divisions and made the most of their current positions by patching the holes that seemed to have the biggest chances of derailing their pennant runs in September. Kansas City needed top of the rotation talent. They were forced to demote Yordanny Ventura last month who had been such a big part of their 2014 success.  Edison Volquez has been a reliable winner for the Royals, but by adding Cueto, the Royals have starters who can complete with anyone in the American League come October.

Houston’s recent sweep of the Angels gave the surprise Astros some breathing room, but the addition of Scott Kazmir adds much needed depth to supplement their fine young ace Dallas Keuchel. Carlos Gomez adds punch to a lineup that was already scoring 4.5 runs per game–third in the AL. Another two months of Carlos Correa should only make the team better. Watching the Astros square off with the Blue Jays for the the AL Championship could pit two monster offensive juggernauts against one another and make for fireworks that would offset the loss of big TV market drawing power.

The Dodgers and Cardinals are the best of the NL unless the 2015 Mets have that Seaver-Koosman magic going again with Harvey, de Grom and Syndergaard. Cespedes is a better version of Donn Clendenon than any Mets fan had reason to expect and with Juan Uribe they have more potent bats than anything Washington has been able to muster–cough, sputter, gasp!! But the Dodgers and Cardinals are most likely to tee it up for the NL Championship.

Whether it is the Cardinals, Dodgers, Blue Jays or Astros, the 2015 World Series winner will just stoke the fires of teams who will start laying plans to shove them aside mere weeks later. The team that has the most to prove to its fan base is in Washington and they have to learn from the many mistakes made in 2015. Papelbon will reinforce the bullpen that leaked runs in 2015, but neither Ryan Zimmerman nor Jayson Werth are difference makers moving forward. Anthony Rendon is injury prone and Bryce Harper is a streaky player who needs someone else in the lineup to even out the bare patches. Allowing the other Zimmermann and Doug Fister to walk is hindsight wisdom, but it is also part of a changing of the guard that frees up salary space that should make the Nationals big players in the off-season.

The departure of Desmond and Span is worth $20 million in salary, whereas, Zimmermann and Fister are worth $28 million on the pitching side. Trea Turner looks major league ready and provides a cheap upgrade to an infield that is already well established with Yunel Escobar, Danny Espinosa, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman. The Nationals need to spend the money to provide some help for Harper in the outfield. While Michael Taylor has shown promise and remarkable defensive talents, the team’s best chance to add pop in the lineup is by relegating Jayson Werth and Taylor to one OF position and bringing in something fresh to brighten the mix.

Jason Heyward is only 26 and his combination of defensive prowess and offensive pop should make him an attractive addition. He still has a chance to bloom in the right environment. Yeonis Cespedes is perhaps even more talented and though he will be 30 next season, the conditioning instilled in the Cuban Baseball Academies should provide 5.0+ WAR for many years to come. But nowhere is the need for Washington to quit believing its own hype more essential than on the pitching side. Maz Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Joe Ross and Gio Gonzalez are a sound foundation for 2016, but if the Nationals are going to compete with the Cardinals and Dodgers–not to mention the Mets–they need another ace and it is never going to be Strasburg.

David Price is going to be the big prize of the off-season and Mike Rizzo and the Washington ownership have not shied away from the spotlight in the past. Whether it is Price or another solid arm, Washington needs to come to grips with what it takes to shake off the curse of the Senators. More than a name change it is going to take overwhelming talent. The chances of drawing to an inside straight and finding the answer next year in Lucas Giolitto and company are about the same. More than cheerleaders on top of the dugout and endless marketing magic, the Nationals need substance if they are going to remain in the top ten in attendance. Rizzo and company need to play for keeps in the 2016 off-season to make the playoffs again. Smoke and mirrors will only work for so long. Money talks…